So that leaves only one spot. The predecessors to the blockbuster sequels Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash were both nominated in this category, and it would be a big disappointment for either sequel not to make it this time. But both films got snubbed by the DGA and PGA despite their box office power, which speaks to the mixed critical reaction they’ve garnered. F1 and Weapons did both make the PGA list, and could possibly make it onto the best-picture list due to their commercial appeal. But we’re betting that the final slot instead goes to Bugonia. Showy Emma Stone–and–Yorgos Lanthimos movies are beloved by the Academy, and even if this film didn’t earn as much notice as The Favourite or Poor Things, Bugonia grabbed a spot on the PGA list too—and we’re guessing that the Academy is happy to continue celebrating this wacky, long-lasting creative partnership. —Rebecca Ford

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Aside from Paul Thomas Anderson, there are no actual locks in this wide-open category. PTA, Ryan Coogler, Josh Safdie, Chloé Zhao, and Guillermo del Toro all received DGA nominations this year—but typically, there is at least one discrepancy between the DGA nominations and the Oscar nominations. The Directors Guild did not nominate Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident, but that body has a history of favoring domestic film. The Academy’s voting body, meanwhile, has become increasingly international. Panahi has a compelling personal story; he won the Palme d’Or at Cannes; and he has delivered impassioned speeches at events like the Gotham Awards and the National Board of Review Awards. Given the Academy’s international slant, it’s hard to imagine him not getting a nod.

That leaves Safdie, Del Toro, and Joachim Trier on the bubble for the final slot. Del Toro is beloved amongst his peers (he moderates countless screenings for other directors), and Frankenstein showed up in a whopping six Oscar short-list categories. Trier’s Sentimental Value has ardent supporters. But the film with the most momentum right now is Marty Supreme. Safdie, like Oscar winner Sean Baker, is an indie darling known for his signature style. A rising tide lifts all boats, and Safdie was the big surprise when the DGA nominations were released. That gives him the narrowest edge for an Oscar nomination. —John Ross

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Emma Stone, Bugonia

The big question here is whether Amanda Seyfried will sneak into the lineup for her kinetic work in The Testament of Ann Lee. Seyfried is a previous Oscar nominee; her film is a richly produced labor of love, the kind of project for which Oscar voters often fall. But Seyfried was snubbed by both BAFTA and the Actor Awards, formerly known as the SAG Awards, and while she got a Golden Globe nod for this role, it was her film’s only nomination at that ceremony. It seems that the movie just isn’t hitting—but One Battle After Another definitely is, and Chase Infiniti (in her very first film role) is the heart of that movie. Jessie Buckley, Renate Reinsve, and Emma Stone are all certainties as well. Rose Byrne was slightly more on the bubble—until she won at the Globes, a victory indicating that her fierce performance in a small film is resonating with voters. Congratulations, Byrne; sorry, Seyfried, that the same doesn’t seem to be true of Ann Lee. —Hillary Busis

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent