A new report from the National Audit Office (NAO) has revealed that while the UK has built resilience against severe space weather effects, preparedness still falls short.

It found that whilst forecasting capabilities for severe space weather have improved, understanding of how to respond to such emergencies remains low.

With recent solar storms posing significant issues for spacecraft and satellite operators, the NAO report recommends that more should be done overall to improve resilience.

It sets out the most serious acute risks facing the UK in the government’s classified National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) and public-facing National Risk Register.

Widespread effects of severe space weather events

Space weather originates from solar activity and mostly causes no tangible disruption.

However, severe space weather can disrupt a range of technologies. For example, an event could cause the widespread disruption of air travel for multiple weeks, localised power outages in the UK, and disruption to satellite services such as satellite navigation and timing services used by many sectors.

The potential economic cost of an extreme event was estimated at £9bn in 2022, though the NAO noted this figure carries uncertainty due to gaps in scientific understanding – including how short disruptions to global navigation satellite systems would affect transport.

Severe space weather has been listed on the UK’s National Risk Register since 2011, when it was formally recognised as one of the country’s highest-priority natural hazards.

UK initiatives aimed at forecasting severe space weather

The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), which formally assumed co-ordination of the government’s work on severe space weather in December 2025, spent around £6.7m in 2025–26 on the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre.

The UK has also committed around £300m to the European Space Agency’s Vigil mission, a satellite designed to improve the accuracy of coronal mass ejection arrival-time forecasts. It is expected to launch in 2031 with an operational life of five years.

However, the NAO identified a range of unresolved issues. Forecasting remains complex, with warning windows ranging from no notice at all to 96 hours, depending on the type of event.

The resilience of the UK’s space weather monitoring capability was also described as vulnerable.

Gaps in knowledge undermine the UK’s response efforts

The report found that several issues could undermine the UK’s ability to prepare for and respond effectively to a severe space weather emergency, and that the government needs to resolve them.

Roles and responsibilities for managing the risk remain unclear; accountabilities could be stronger; and the government has yet to set out the outcome it is seeking to achieve and the level of residual impacts it is willing to accept.

There is more the government can do to engage local responders and businesses in planning to ensure the effectiveness of its whole-of-society response.

Moreover, the centre of government has an incomplete understanding of how sectors plan to respond to a severe space weather emergency, including whether they use risk-specific or generic response plans, and testing of response plans through simulation exercises has been limited, constraining understanding of vulnerabilities.

Collaborative efforts needed to overcome these issues

The NAO recommended that the government define the outcomes it is seeking and test its plans against a range of plausible scenarios, including:

• Working with the Met Office to establish the long-term forecasting capability and the level of resilience required
• Developing a more detailed whole-of-society approach, including a communications plan for businesses and citizens.

“The government has invested in improving the UK’s forecasting and is taking steps to increase its resilience to severe space weather,” stated Gareth Davies, head of the NAO.

“As the government develops its new severe space weather preparedness strategy, DSIT and the Met Office should work collaboratively to further improve forecasting and resilience.”