After his Actor and BAFTA awards wins, it’s looking like Sean Penn is the one to beat in this category. Stellan Skarsgård, who wasn’t nominated for an Actor Award, is nipping at Penn’s heels—but not winning the BAFTA doesn’t bode well for his campaign. So back to Penn: When One Battle After Another was released in theaters, his performance was lauded as a standout in this ensemble film. Yet his reluctance to do awards press (besides an interview with Vanity Fair, of course) made it seem like maybe the Academy would want to reward a more eager actor in this category. Months later, though, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Regardless of Penn’s personal attitude toward awards, it feels like the larger-than-life character of Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw is too good to ignore. —JR

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
PREDICTED WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Well, well, well, do we have a race! Not since the days of Tilda Swinton’s surprise win for Michael Clayton has a best-supporting-actress race been this wide open. You can probably safely eliminate both Sentimental Value women, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, due to the fact that neither has won a major precursor award, and they’ll probably split the vote among Sentimental Value fans anyway. Teyana Taylor took home the Globe for her fiery performance in best-picture front-runner One Battle After Another. Weeks later, Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA for her grounded work in Sinners, which only seems to be gaining momentum. But then Amy Madigan emerged victorious at the Actor Awards for her batty performance in Weapons. Between Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku, the ultimate winner is really anyone’s guess. Based on conventional wisdom, one might give the edge to Madigan because she scored at the Actor Awards—actors are the biggest Academy branch—or Mosaku, whose film is surging right now. But we’re going with VF cover girl Teyana Taylor, who serves as the beating heart of the film to beat (at least for now). —CM

Best Adapted Screenplay

​​Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
PREDICTED WINNER: One Battle After Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

You heard it here first: Even if Sinners upsets One Battle in both best picture and best director—which could definitely happen!—Paul Thomas Anderson will not walk away from another Oscar ceremony without a statuette to his name. The auteur has a staggering 14 nominations, including his haul this year, but has famously never won. It’s tough to see how screenplay, at least, doesn’t go his way, due both to the undeniable strength of Anderson’s Pynchon adaptation—which seamlessly updates a very of-its-time novel for the modern era, keeping all the stuff that worked and replacing whatever didn’t—and to the lack of a strong competitor in this particular category. A few small beers for PTA, please. —HB

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
PREDICTED WINNER: Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler