Extreme heat is increasingly affecting productivity and incomes across Africa, particularly among workers in the informal economy. New evidence from Nigeria, Ghana and India suggests that simple, electricity-free cooling technologies could help reduce these losses. However, making these solutions affordable for the workers who need them most remains a major challenge.

For millions of workers across Africa, rising temperatures are becoming an economic burden. Farmers lose productive hours in the fields, street vendors see their goods spoil before they can be sold, and delivery riders struggle to maintain their earnings during the hottest parts of the day.

The consequences extend well beyond individual livelihoods. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), 2.4 billion workers worldwide are exposed to excessive heat, including an estimated 93% of Africa’s workforce. By 2030, heat stress is projected to cost the global economy $2.4 trillion annually in lost productivity, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs.

For informal workers, who often lack paid leave and other forms of income protection, there is little financial cushion against these losses. Every hour of work missed can translate directly into lost earnings.

Cooling as a tool for economic resilience

While much of the cooling market has traditionally focused on buildings and indoor environments, workers in agriculture, transport and informal retail often need solutions that can be used in open-air settings or while moving between locations.

Passive cooling technologies offer one possible response. Reflective materials can protect market stalls and perishable goods from excessive heat, while evaporative garments help workers stay cool without relying on electricity. For traders, this could mean fewer losses and longer selling hours. For farmers and construction workers, it could mean more time spent working despite rising temperatures.

Such solutions could be particularly valuable for women-led enterprises, many of which depend on selling food and agricultural produce vulnerable to spoilage. The challenge, however, is not simply developing effective cooling technologies, but finding ways to bring them to market at prices informal workers can afford.

Testing the economic case for affordable cooling

A new report from Shell Foundation, The Cooling Dividend, explores this potential through the Scaling Passive and Affordable Cooling for Economic Resilience and Sustainability (SPACES) programme, which has tested electricity-free cooling technologies with nearly 12,000 workers and micro-entrepreneurs across Nigeria, Ghana and India. Supported by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), and implemented with partners including Trane Technologies, Intellecap and Ndarama Works, the initiative examines whether reducing heat exposure can also protect workers’ earnings.

Delivery riders using evaporative cooling jackets reported completing two to five additional deliveries a day, increasing their earnings by 15% to 25%. Other workers recovered between one and three hours otherwise lost to the heat.

In Nigeria, reflective cooling umbrellas helped increase the share of surveyed traders working throughout the day from 41% to 93%, while those surveyed reported no heat-related spoilage during the pilot.

Women-led businesses in Nigeria and Ghana saw some of the largest gains, with net income margins rising by 34 to 38 percentage points among users of cooling canvas.

The affordability barrier: the paradox of a $3,000 umbrella

The potential gains are significant, but so is the cost of accessing them. A cooling-canvas umbrella designed to help market traders protect their stock and earnings currently costs around $3,000 when imported, including shipping and duties.

The price highlights the gap between technological potential and commercial reality. During the first year of SPACES, cooling equipment was distributed free of charge, allowing workers to test its benefits without having to purchase it. The next challenge is to translate those results into a commercially viable offer.

The wider market opportunity is substantial. The cooling market in developing economies is projected to reach at least $600 billion annually by 2050, growing sevenfold in Africa and fourfold in South Asia. Reaching informal workers, however, will require different approaches from those traditionally used to sell cooling equipment to households and businesses.

One possibility is to produce more equipment locally, reducing the freight and import costs that currently inflate prices. Another is to build demand through employers, agricultural cooperatives and market associations, allowing manufacturers to supply larger orders rather than selling to workers individually. Financing models that spread payments over time, or share the cost between employers and workers, could also bring these technologies within reach.

Shell Foundation and its SPACES partners are now exploring these approaches, building on the first-year trials to support the emergence of a commercially sustainable market. The programme aims to reach 1.5 million customers over the next five years, a target that will depend on whether lower production costs and new distribution models can make cooling affordable at scale.

For Shell Foundation and its partners, the next step is to turn the early evidence into a market that can operate beyond subsidised pilots. As temperatures rise, the wider opportunity lies in making cooling a viable investment for the workers and small businesses whose livelihoods increasingly depend on it.