All posts tagged: prediction

An Inflection Point for Prediction Markets

An Inflection Point for Prediction Markets

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. The day before Donald Trump’s second State of the Union address, the former Representative George Santos shared a video of himself saying, in no uncertain terms, that he was “going to be there.” The next day, he didn’t show up. According to the prediction-market company Kalshi, that was the plan—the firm alleged that he made roughly $17,000 by betting on the platform that he wouldn’t appear at the speech. Kalshi flagged the wager to federal authorities, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency that regulates prediction markets, fined Santos over it in July. On Monday, Kalshi doubled down, levying a fine of its own and giving him the platform’s first-ever lifetime ban. Prediction-market companies, which let users make bets on the outcomes of all sorts of real-world events, have fully entered the mainstream over the past few …

States cite Ninth Circuit rulings, George Santos banned from Kalshi: today in prediction market news LIVE

States cite Ninth Circuit rulings, George Santos banned from Kalshi: today in prediction market news LIVE

Today in prediction market news, we’re following a fresh wave of legal and regulatory developments, including Kalshi urging the Tenth Circuit to block Utah enforcement while its federal appeal plays out, and Ohio and Rhode Island pointing to recent Ninth Circuit rulings as they defend state authority over prediction markets. We’re also tracking Kalshi’s permanent ban of former Republican New York Congressman George Santos following an investigation into his trading activity, along with the platform’s call for clearer CFTC guardrails as event contract markets grow. We’ll also be following the latest on enforcement actions involving political trading, Kalshi’s allegations against North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout, and developments across prediction markets, regulation, politics, crypto and sports event trading throughout the day. The post States cite Ninth Circuit rulings, George Santos banned from Kalshi: today in prediction market news LIVE appeared first on ReadWrite. Source link

CFTC’s Innovation Summit had everything: crypto lawfare, ‘fake news,’ hot dogs and a prediction market cage match

CFTC’s Innovation Summit had everything: crypto lawfare, ‘fake news,’ hot dogs and a prediction market cage match

At the CFTC inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, Wall Street veterans and upstarts from prediction markets agreed Washington needs clearer rules. They were rather less united on whether some of the products currently being invented should exist at all. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) convened some of the biggest names in crypto, derivatives and prediction markets on Thursday to discuss the future of American finance. For roughly three hours, the future was blockchain, artificial intelligence, federal pre-emption and regulatory clarity. Then Terry Duffy got the microphone. The chairman and chief executive of CME Group had listened through discussions of crypto, tokenization and AI before arriving at prediction markets — the final 50-minute session on the CFTC’s official agenda, which specifically called for debate over jurisdiction, manipulation, product design and consumer protection. “I’m a little concerned about this and I’m a lot concerned about it,” Duffy said. Comments from CME’s Terry Duffy that led to the exchange below. https://t.co/ST1kQPxeYh pic.twitter.com/qGFsh7REPC — Fairplaygov (@fairplaygov) August 20, 2026 His complaint was that innovation is all very exciting …

The prediction that Linux had no future aged disastrously

The prediction that Linux had no future aged disastrously

A few months after Linus Torvalds released the first version of Linux, he found himself arguing publicly with someone whose work had helped shape the project in the first place. If you’re fuzzy on the terminology, what the Linux kernel actually does is central to the argument that followed because Torvalds and Andrew Tanenbaum fundamentally disagreed over how that core of an operating system should be designed. Tanenbaum was a respected computer science professor, the creator of MINIX, and the author of a widely used textbook on operating system design. Torvalds had used MINIX himself, and the story of how he created Linux and why it became free software is closely tied to the Unix-like systems and development tools already around him. The MINIX newsgroup was also one of the places where early Linux development took shape. Then, on January 29, 1992, Tanenbaum posted a message to comp.os.minix with a subject line that made his opinion pretty clear. The post that called Linux obsolete “Writing a monolithic kernel in 1991 is a giant step back …

FlightAware sues Kalshi, Nasdaq partnership announced, today in prediction market news LIVE

FlightAware sues Kalshi, Nasdaq partnership announced, today in prediction market news LIVE

Today in prediction market news, we’re following another busy day for Kalshi, including its appeal of a Connecticut federal court ruling, a new trademark lawsuit from FlightAware, and a partnership with Nasdaq. We’ll also track the CFTC’s upcoming Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, ProphetX and Pikkit teaming up on regulated sports prediction markets, and breaking developments across prediction markets, regulation, elections, crypto, and sports event trading throughout the day. The post FlightAware sues Kalshi, Nasdaq partnership announced, today in prediction market news LIVE appeared first on ReadWrite. Source link

Novig sues three more states, CFTC appeals Wisconsin ruling, today in Prediction Market News LIVE

Novig sues three more states, CFTC appeals Wisconsin ruling, today in Prediction Market News LIVE

Today in prediction market news, we’re following a wave of legal and regulatory developments across the industry, including Novig filing lawsuits against Washington, Massachusetts, and New Mexico, New York seeking to move its Kalshi case back to state court, and the CFTC appealing the Wisconsin prediction market ruling. We’ll also track Kalshi’s emergency bid for an injunction in Utah, the CFTC’s latest warning to prediction markets, and breaking developments across prediction markets, regulation, crypto, elections, and sports event trading throughout the day. The post Novig sues three more states, CFTC appeals Wisconsin ruling, today in Prediction Market News LIVE appeared first on ReadWrite. Source link

Former Senator Dodd challenges CFTC prediction markets proposal citing congressional intent

Former Senator Dodd challenges CFTC prediction markets proposal citing congressional intent

Former U.S. Sen. Christopher J. Dodd is pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to abandon a proposed rule on prediction markets, saying it would depart from what Congress intended when it approved the Dodd-Frank Act after the 2008 financial crisis.  His July 26 letter to CFTC Secretary Christopher Kirkpatrick argues the proposal could encourage gambling through regulated derivatives markets instead of preserving the law’s original purpose. Here's former US Sen. Chris Dodd (of the Dodd-Frank Act) on the CFTC's proposed prediction market rules. He's not a fan: "We did not amend the Commodity Exchange Act to override the established system for states to develop their own policies and laws regulating gaming." pic.twitter.com/W0JoHTznZ2 — Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 27, 2026 “In the past year, additional speculators have emerged promoting event contracts that are merely a substitute for gambling,” Dodd wrote. “The CFTC is now engaged in work to amend its regulations to facilitate gambling on derivatives exchanges.” The former Connecticut senator said the proposed changes “contradict the language and intent of the Dodd-Frank Act” and “could …

CFTC orders Kalshi to restore unwound Michigan prediction market trades

CFTC orders Kalshi to restore unwound Michigan prediction market trades

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has directed Kalshi to complete pending trades that the prediction market operator had previously unwound after a Michigan state court order. The move leaves the company arguing it is now trapped between conflicting legal demands from state and federal authorities. The agency said it had stayed a Kalshi rule change and used its emergency authority to require the exchange to honor the affected trades. That decision effectively reverses Kalshi’s earlier response to the Michigan court order and prompted the company to say it is being forced into an impossible position. Kalshi sharply criticized the regulator’s action in a statement from its Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel, Robert Denault. The company said it reversed the trades only because it believed compliance with the Michigan court’s directive was mandatory. We are disappointed by this decision and believe it is unfair to Kalshi. We already acted and unwound the trades, as the Michigan court order required us to do. We are being put in an impossible position, looking to follow state court …

Gov. Hobbs orders ethics crackdown on prediction market insider trading in Arizona

Gov. Hobbs orders ethics crackdown on prediction market insider trading in Arizona

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has signed an executive order prohibiting executive branch employees from using nonpublic government information to profit through prediction markets, creating new ethics rules that also classify certain information as confidential when it could be be used to place wagers. The order, signed July 9 as Executive Order 2026-02, prohibits state executive branch employees from using or disclosing nonpublic information obtained through their public service to earn money, avoid financial losses, or help another person or organization profit through participation in prediction markets. Employees who violate the policy may face dismissal or other disciplinary action and could also be referred to law enforcement, according to the executive order. Gov. @katiehobbs signs executive order banning state workers from insider trading on prediction markets. The EO forbids executive branch employees from disclosing or using any nonpublic info to profit, avoid financial loss, or assist others in profiting from prediction markets. — Craig Harris (@CraigHarrisNews) July 9, 2026 Governor Hobbs announced the order Thursday (July 9), saying it is intended to strengthen ethical standards as …