All posts tagged: prediction

Prediction Markets Platform Targets B2B Operators

Prediction Markets Platform Targets B2B Operators

Published by skeptic

Hacksaw Group has launched a B2B prediction-market platform for operators, entering a sector where annual global trading volume could reach about $1 trillion by 2030, according to an estimate cited in the company’s announcement. The Stockholm-listed technology and game developer says the platform will let operators offer peer-to-peer prediction markets using Hacksaw’s technology, distribution network and operator relationships. The company says Bernstein estimated the market’s annual volume could reach that level as adoption expands; it is not a forecast of Hacksaw’s own business. Operators keep their brands and customer relationships The platform is designed to spare operators from building and maintaining the underlying technology themselves. They can offer prediction-market experiences within their own businesses while retaining their brands, customer relationships and user experiences, according to the Hacksaw announcement. Hacksaw says its connected volume framework is intended to pool peer-to-peer participation across its operator network, giving participating businesses access to broader capacity from launch. The company also says it developed the platform within its existing cost base. The announcement does not specify operator customers, trading volumes, …

Prediction Markets: CFTC Swap Rules Explained

Prediction Markets: CFTC Swap Rules Explained

Published by skeptic

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued two measures that would define which prediction-market contracts fall under federal derivatives rules and which remain gambling products overseen by states. The agency says event contracts are within its exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act, a position that puts the rulemaking at the center of an ongoing jurisdictional fight, as the CFTC’s effort to clarify event-contract oversight shows. One measure would expand the definition of a swap to include contracts tied to cultural events, weather, politics and sports. The CFTC says these products are commonly treated as swaps in trading markets and that the rule would resolve uncertainty about their status under federal law. The second measure is an interim final rule that excludes casino-style gambling, including sportsbook wagers and casino games, from the swap definition. It takes effect upon publication in the Federal Register. Both measures have 30-day comment periods, and the filings were sent to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on September 28 before their release on Friday, October 9. Federal …

Prediction Markets Face Federal-State Regulation Fight

Prediction Markets Face Federal-State Regulation Fight

Published by skeptic

Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets spent at least $3 million on lobbying and political contributions in 2026, as the companies and state officials fight over who can regulate prediction markets. The platforms say their contracts fall under federal oversight, while states argue they are gambling products governed by state law. The CFTC has sued states seeking to enforce gambling laws against prediction-market platforms, adding a federal dimension to the dispute. State officials have also organized to preserve their authority, including through a push for state control of prediction markets. OpenSecrets’ review of filings found that Kalshi gave $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association in the first half of 2026. It also contributed $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association during that period. Kalshi had at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states as of September, with nearly all hired since April. Its disclosed California lobbying spending reached $62,000 in the first half of the year; in New …

Prediction Markets: Blockchain.com Seeks CFTC Approval

Prediction Markets: Blockchain.com Seeks CFTC Approval

Published by skeptic

Blockchain.com has asked the CFTC for permission to offer prediction markets and cryptocurrency derivatives in the United States, but the applications have not yet been approved. The company told CNBC about the filings on October 9, according to FinanceFeeds. Its requests cover both retail and institutional customers; neither a U.S. launch nor a decision date was reported. Two registrations, two roles Blockchain.com is seeking designated contract market status, which would let it operate a regulated futures exchange, and registration as a futures commission merchant, enabling it to broker derivatives contracts. Together, those permissions would provide a route to offer event contracts and crypto derivatives under the requested federal framework. The company already serves some international customers with prediction markets through Polymarket and perpetual futures powered by Hyperliquid. FinanceFeeds reports that the Polymarket relationship began earlier in 2026, while Blockchain.com launched perpetual futures through its self-custodial DeFi wallet in April. CEO and co-founder Peter Smith described the filings as part of a plan to bring digital asset management, derivatives trading and event-based positions into one service. …

Kalshi Prediction Markets Face State Gambling Laws

Kalshi Prediction Markets Face State Gambling Laws

Published by skeptic

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled against Kalshi on Sept. 25, saying Tennessee and Ohio can regulate its sports-event contracts under state gambling laws. The unanimous three-judge panel’s decision means Kalshi lost its bid to block enforcement while the disputes continue. The ruling adds to conflicting federal appeals court decisions about whether states or the CFTC can oversee prediction markets. It also gives Tennessee and Ohio a basis to apply their gambling laws to the contracts at issue, rather than leaving them exclusively under federal derivatives regulation. The Tennessee disputes over Kalshi event contracts and state gambling laws have become part of a wider fight over the company’s operating position in the U.S. What the court decided Kalshi had asked courts to block Tennessee and Ohio from enforcing their gambling laws against its sports-event contracts. Writing for the panel, Circuit Judge Julia Smith Gibbons said Kalshi had not shown that those contracts qualified as “swaps” subject exclusively to CFTC regulation. The panel also concluded that the Commodity Exchange Act did not …

DraftKings Prediction Markets: 0M Fee Forecast

DraftKings Prediction Markets: $400M Fee Forecast

Published by skeptic

Bank of America upgraded DraftKings from Neutral to Buy, kept its $27 price target and estimated the company could collect about $400 million in prediction-market fees in 2027. The forecast gives investors a concrete measure of the potential contribution from a business DraftKings is expanding alongside its sportsbook. BofA also sees a separate $200 million to $400 million opportunity from market-making activities; it did not combine that estimate with the fee forecast. Different forecasts for 2026 and 2027 BofA said DraftKings had become the third-largest player in prediction markets and that concerns about the products taking business from its sportsbook had eased. The bank pointed to traditional sportsbooks growing faster than prediction markets since football season began. The upgrade comes with a near-term earnings cost in the bank’s estimates. BofA cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $500 million from $625 million, citing increased prediction-market investment, partly offset by stronger performance in DraftKings’ core business. For 2027, BofA raised its adjusted EBITDA estimate to $1.15 billion from $1.05 billion, reflecting stronger core trends and expected …

A Prediction Market About the Past? Sure, Why Not!

A Prediction Market About the Past? Sure, Why Not!

Published by skeptic

Would you put money on whether Covid-19 originated from a lab? How about whether some of the footage from the Apollo 11 moon landing was actually filmed on Earth? Verifact Markets, a new startup that bills itself as a “prediction market for disputed facts,” is betting that people will be eager to weigh in on questions like these. The company’s premise is so quirky it sounds like something a couple of philosophy and economics majors dreamed after too many bong rips in their dorm room: Instead of wagering on the future, why not trade on stuff that already happened? When Verifact Markets launched on Friday, some of the initial topics traders could take a position on included whether Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide and whether insurance behemoth State Farm “intentionally delayed” claims related to the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires. The featured market during beta testing was, indeed, about the origins of Covid-19. (As of writing, the market is still open, with “true” priced at 76 cents and “false” at 32; the majority of participants had …

Fury vs Joshua: Date, fight time, undercard, tickets, TV channel, prediction and odds

Fury vs Joshua: Date, fight time, undercard, tickets, TV channel, prediction and odds

Published by Sam Flores

Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua finally clash later this year in arguably the biggest and certainly the most long-awaited super-fight in British boxing history. A high-profile heavyweight rivalry spanning more than a decade will finally be settled at long last on UK soil in December, barring any more issues that threaten to derail the delicate agreement – one that apparently does not contain a rematch clause on either side – negotiated by Saudi boxing powerbroker Turki Alalshikh. Though unquestionably now several years overdue and both men undisputedly beyond the peak of their respective fighting powers with neither holding any world titles, there remains incredible interest in a mammoth showdown for the ages that will be watched around the world on Netflix. The official naming of White – who was not present at the press conference due to existing commitments around Dana White’s Contender Series in Las Vegas – as a co-promoter of the bout drew a furious reaction from Hearn, who claimed that the UFC president and Zuffa Boxing chief could not be involved due …

Prediction Markets Under Federal Scrutiny

Prediction Markets Under Federal Scrutiny

Published by skeptic

The Supreme Court is weighing petitions involving prediction markets as the House Oversight Committee expands an insider-trading inquiry and the CFTC reportedly reviews promotional programs, putting operators under pressure from three separate federal fronts. The developments, reported by Gambling Insider on September 30, 2026, are unfolding alongside stronger opposition from casino, Tribal gaming and labor representatives. They are not one coordinated enforcement action: the court has not agreed to hear the cases, the committee is seeking information, and the CFTC review could lead to examinations or enforcement. Three separate federal tracks The New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement petitioned the Supreme Court after the Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi’s favor. Robinhood and Crypto.com also filed petitions after the Ninth Circuit rejected their preemption arguments in Nevada in August. The court had not agreed to hear any of the cases as it considered petitions ahead of its 2026–27 term. In Congress, House Oversight Chair James Comer sent letters on Tuesday, September 29, to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange/PredictIt. The committee wants details on identity verification and …

Prediction Markets Face Casino License Concerns

Prediction Markets Face Casino License Concerns

Published by skeptic

Wynn Resorts’ Craig Billings, MGM Resorts International’s Bill Hornbuckle and Caesars Entertainment’s Tom Reeg used their G2E main-stage discussion to challenge the growth of prediction markets and defend regulated gaming. The discussion, reported by CDC Gaming, also touched on Las Vegas’s changing customer patterns and rising operating costs. Reeg said the city had moved through a post-reopening boom and returned toward its pre-pandemic seasonality, while Hornbuckle said MGM’s convention business was up 11%. Hornbuckle acknowledged that higher airline fares and gas prices are squeezing some customers. He also warned that operators need to watch prices and fees, saying the average customer could be lost if companies ignore the pressure. Billings said Wynn serves an “upper-end” customer and must balance occupancy against room rates as Las Vegas operating costs rise. He said the company focuses on providing a comfortable customer experience. American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller framed the discussion as a defense of the legal industry’s economic contribution. He said legal gaming supports 1.8 million jobs, pays $53 billion in taxes and generates …