Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go?
For the first time in its history three of the four nations of the UK are led by parties that advocate holding referendums on breaking away from the UK. Recently, the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed an agreement to work together on this agenda. (Michelle O’Neill did so in her capacity as vice president of Sinn Féin rather than as Northern Ireland’s first minister, as that office is held jointly with the DUP). Prime Minister Andy Burnham has made devolution one of his guiding principles, although at the Labour party conference he was clear he intended to see off any threat to the integrity of the UK: “Britain is not perfect. It can be better, and we will make it so, but it still stands for something worth saving, worth fighting for.” What chance would a referendum on independence have of passing in each of the three nations? By looking at polling and election results, it’s possible to assess which one is most and least likely to secede. In each case, …
