All posts tagged: credibility

Warsh’s Credibility Test: How The Fed Chair Painted Himself Into A Corner

Warsh’s Credibility Test: How The Fed Chair Painted Himself Into A Corner

Published by Jenni Sidey

Only about two weeks ago, downside risk to the labor market had been flagged by a negative nonfarm payroll growth number for July, progress was being made on the inflation front, and Warsh had been exceptionally quiet for a Fed Chair. Consequently, markets were pricing in a low probability for a rate hike in September, just over 30%. Then, as Rabobank’s Philip Marey writes in his FOMC preview note, at Jackson Hole, Warsh surprised the markets with a hawkish speech on inflation. A week later, the new Employment Report erased the negative number for July, replaced it by a positive number, and added an outright impressive positive nonfarm payroll growth figure for August. Then, on Friday, the CPI report showed a larger than expected month-on-month increase in the core CPI, suggesting that progress on inflation was stalling. As a result, markets are now pricing in a near certain probability of a hike in September and 3-4 hikes in total before the end of next year, and then another 2 by next summer. Looking through inflation …

Experts quit Lucy Letby’s defence team over ‘scientific credibility’ as public inquiry reports

Experts quit Lucy Letby’s defence team over ‘scientific credibility’ as public inquiry reports

Published by Sam Flores

Two leading experts have withdrawn from Lucy Letby’s defence team over concerns about the “scientific credibility” of some of its evidence. Separately a public inquiry into the murders will publish its findings on Tuesday. The review, led by Lady Justice Kathryn Thirlwall, is expected to highlight a number of missed opportunities for bosses to intervene after doctors raised the alarm about a spate of unexplained deaths on the neonatal unit in 2015 and 2016. A criminal investigation is ongoing into potential corporate manslaughter and gross negligence manslaughter at the Countess of Chester hospital. Letby, a former neonatal nurse, is challenging her convictions for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven others at the Countess of Chester hospital in north-west England. The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the UK’s miscarriage of justice watchdog, is considering a dossier of evidence submitted last year by experts on her behalf. Two experts withdrew from Letby’s defence team on Monday. They said that although they stood by their assessment that it was “very unlikely” two of the babies were …

Hot CPI puts Warsh’s credibility on the line before rate call: Analysis

Hot CPI puts Warsh’s credibility on the line before rate call: Analysis

Published by Sam Flores

Warsh hasn’t promised any particular action on rates, but he recently laid out a case that the Fed will need to raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t moderate. He arguably preserved the wiggle room to keep rates flat if he and the rest of the Fed choose not to act at their Sept. 15-16 meeting. But with his leadership of the Fed under intense scrutiny from inside and outside the organization, not acting after his repeated inflation warnings will make it harder for him to convince the market he is serious next time. Economists will find ways to slice the new CPI data. Warsh’s challenge is that his economic philosophy specifically frowns on making quick turns on individual data points such as the latest CPI print. That puts him in contrast with Fed officials such as Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Both entered the final stretch before the meeting more inclined to wait for remaining data before deciding whether a rate increase was necessary. Warsh, by contrast, has repeatedly warned …

Bessent’s political turn in convention speech tests his credibility

Bessent’s political turn in convention speech tests his credibility

Published by Sam Flores

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s push to calm the bond market is colliding with a more political role, as his Republican convention speech raises questions about the credibility he needs to manage U.S. debt markets. Bessent’s prime-time speech at the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday marks the first time in 50 years that a sitting Treasury secretary has spoken at a national political convention. In his speech, Bessent put forward broad claims of economic success for the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s second term, claiming “everything from GDP to factory payrolls is firing up.” The Treasury Secretary also praised Trump, adding, “no one works harder for you, no one fights harder for you, and no president has asked his team and of himself to put American families back at the center of the American economy than Donald J. Trump.” He also took aim at the Democratic Party, saying “they brought this country to the brink of ruin” under former President Joe Biden. The Dallas meeting is the first time the GOP has held a …

HBO Max is sacrificing its credibility to vertical video

HBO Max is sacrificing its credibility to vertical video

Published by Sam Flores

Historians like to claim that the pre-millennium monoculture is dead. Really, it’s just blurred. Smartphones have fooled us into thinking that we curate what our screens show us. But when so much of the media we consume is presented the same way, no piece of media can stand out. More does not always equal better. Take HBO Max’s new foray into the short-form space. The streamer is the latest to integrate a tab for vertical videos into its interface, following Netflix, Prime Video and more. Each of these streamers hopes to compete with YouTube (and its successful Shorts tab), Instagram and TikTok to get viewers to spend more time on their platform. And to do it, they’re clipping some flabbergasting selections from their media libraries and pumping them out into vertical videos. Thank goodness we can now watch TV, movies and short-form content the same way. That certainly won’t have any negative impact on our brain function and attention spans. Out of curiosity, I scrolled through a few vertical videos on HBO Max to see …

Google Just Torched the Credibility of Its Satellite Images

Google Just Torched the Credibility of Its Satellite Images

Published by Daniella Wilson

Earlier today, I used Google Earth to conjure images of terrible things: office buildings on fire, mass destruction in San Francisco, a smoldering crater in place of the Eiffel Tower. I was able to because Google had just decided to integrate its AI image generator, Nano Banana, into the service, which has historically been used by people seeking satellite or aerial imagery of real-world locations. Just open the site, “pick a spot on the map, and start bringing your ideas to life,” Google wrote in a press release announcing the update some 24 hours ago. So I did. I was easily able to generate those violent images simply by searching for a location on Google Earth, clicking the “Create image” icon, and typing in a few words. The feature also readily doctored stills of less spectacular, and likely less immediately falsifiable, events: a homeless encampment on the White House lawn, protesters outside the Mar-a-Lago resort, immigrants streaming over the U.S.-Mexico border. Google initially responded by directing people to check any suspicious images themselves. As fake …

Fed’s Warsh’s credibility in question after rate decision: Analysis

Fed’s Warsh’s credibility in question after rate decision: Analysis

Published by Sam Flores

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at Federal Reserve Headquarters on July 29, 2026 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee | Getty Images For a Federal Reserve chairman who prizes credibility above all other virtues, the market’s reaction to Kevin Warsh’s remarks Wednesday must have been painful.  Warsh hosted a news conference Wednesday afternoon following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which voted 9-3 to leave interest rates unchanged. It was just the second such meeting since Warsh became head of the Fed on May 22. Investors responded by sharply lowering the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting but also raised the yields on long-term government debt.  After the news conference, the yield on the 30-year Treasury hit its highest level since 2007, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury fell. The chances that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting jumped by 20 percentage points to 45%, according to CME FedWatch. Read more CNBC politics coverage That dynamic suggests …

Fed Chairman Warsh faces an inflation credibility test: Analysis

Fed Chairman Warsh faces an inflation credibility test: Analysis

Published by Sam Flores

Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, arrives for a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Daniel Heuer | Bloomberg | Getty Images Credibility is everything for Kevin Warsh. Congressional hearings this week showed how hard it will be for the new Federal Reserve chairman to keep it. Warsh had few, if any, major slip-ups amid intense questioning from Democrats — and supportive commentary from Republicans — in back-to-back days of testimony before the House and Senate on Tuesday and Wednesday. But with both parties in full agreement that prices are still rising too fast, the Fed chairman needs to quickly deliver on his promises to keep prices stable. If not, he risks losing support both within the Fed and in the chairman’s traditional power base on Capitol Hill. Part of Warsh’s challenge is that he wants to rethink how the Fed measures inflation itself. Two important measures of prices — the consumer and producer price indexes — showed unexpected declines this week. CPI fell by 0.4% in …

Meghan makes noticeable shift as she utilises Lilibet for ‘credibility’ | Royal | News

Meghan makes noticeable shift as she utilises Lilibet for ‘credibility’ | Royal | News

Published by Sam Flores

Meghan Markle is increasingly featuring Princess Lilibet in public posts, with branding experts suggesting the appearances help reinforce the authenticity of her growing lifestyle brand. The Duchess of Sussex has again put family life front and centre while promoting her As Ever business, revealing that each member of her household has a different favourite jam from her latest collection. The comments came in a social media post that highlighted Prince Archie, seven, and Lilibet, who turns five next week, as Meghan continues to share more glimpses of her children than at any point since stepping back from royal duties. Observers have noted a marked increase in the number of photographs and videos featuring Lilibet over the past year. The youngster has appeared in family celebrations, behind-the-scenes clips from the Sussexes’ California home and promotional material. One recent post showed Lilibet sitting on the floor of Meghan’s walk-in wardrobe while the Duchess selected outfits, while another promotional video for the brand’s Mother’s Day collection offered followers a rare glimpse of the young princess. The shift has …

Musk v. Altman week 3: Musk and Altman traded blows over each other’s credibility. Now the jury will pick a side.

Musk v. Altman week 3: Musk and Altman traded blows over each other’s credibility. Now the jury will pick a side.

Published by skeptic

Musk’s lawyer shot back, grilling Altman on his alleged history of lying. He pointed out that OpenAI’s former executives Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati, and former board members Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley, all testified that Altman had lied to them. In 2023, Altman was briefly fired as CEO over the alleged behavior. Molo also pressed Altman about his personal investments in startups that do business with OpenAI. Altman testified that he tried to steer OpenAI to buying power from the nuclear energy company Helion Energy, a third of which he owns. (Last Friday, the US House oversight committee launched an investigation into Altman’s potential conflicts of interest. Attorneys general from more than a half-dozen states called for the Securities and Exchange Commission to review them.) During his closing statement, Molo put Altman’s credibility on the stand again. “Imagine that you’re on a hike, and you come upon one of those wooden bridges that you see on a trail, and it’s over a gorge,” he said. “A woman standing by the entry to the bridge …