Get RNS’ thoughtful, essential religion reporting every morning. Sign up for free!
(RNS) — Well, it’s finally here: It’s Election Day in America, and religion is a big part of several races.
Here at Religion News Service, we’re keeping tabs on at least 12 House and Senate races with a faith leader on the ballot. Many mainline Protestant clergy and seminarians are running as Democrats in the midterms. Several additional contests also have major religious dynamics at play: In Michigan, for example, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is vying to be the first Muslim U.S. Senator, and no matter whom voters choose to become the next governor of Ohio, the state will have either its first Jewish or its first Hindu governor.
To get a sense of how these races are shaping up heading into Election Day, RNS analyzed the most recent polls from widely respected pollsters. We couldn’t find good surveys for all the races we’re watching, but according to those we found, Democrats are favored to have a good night: El-Sayed is leading his Republican opponent Rep. Mike Rogers by 11 points; Democrat and Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico has a 6-point advantage over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in that state’s Senate race; United Methodist megapastor the Rev. Adam Hamilton has a 5-point cushion over Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.
In Iowa, Presbyterian minister and state Rep. Lindsay James has a 3-point lead over Republican Joe Mitchell in the battle for that state’s second congressional district, and Democrat Amy Acton (49%) appears to be ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy (43%). Even among longshot candidates, there is reason for Democrats to have hope: Democrat Chris Jones, a non-denominational pastor, is within 4 points of his Republican opponent, French Hill, in Arkansas.
But as rosy as that picture appears for Democrats, these numbers carry big caveats. State-level polling is notoriously difficult, and it’s common for errors to emerge on Election Day. What’s more, pollsters at places such as The Washington Post have reported difficulty getting Republicans to respond to surveys in Kansas, raising questions as to whether other surveys reflect reality.
But whoever wins these races, this Election Day is one to watch, with religion as a major player: After a cycle that featured everything from clergy candidates to faith-themed ads to popes casting ballots, faith is likely to be on the minds of voters, candidates and analysts alike as results roll in Tuesday night.