Since 2016, many writers have, time and again, predicted Donald Trump’s demise. I have always resisted that temptation. It has long been clear to me that Trump had managed to dominate American politics to a remarkable extent, and would not be easy to dislodge.

But all political eras must end eventually, and the Trump Era likely ended last night. The rebuke which the American people have delivered to him is profound. The reasons are many: inflation, corruption, the war of choice with Iran, the wanton cruelty of the administration, and much more. The most important reason is even more simple: Trump made huge promises in 2016, and again in 2024. Nobody believes them anymore.

This does not mean that the furies that Trump is so masterful at channeling will suddenly disappear from American politics. Trump is fading. But Trumpism, the MAGA movement, or perhaps some new form of populist insurgency will likely stay a big part of the political system.

This is the biggest midterm wave in decades. According to current projections, Democrats stand to flip more seats in the Senate than in any election since 2008 and more seats in the House than in any election since 1974. They have flipped Senate seats in Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas, and may well do so in Mississippi. Jon Ossoff, in Georgia, will win his seat by a whopping margin of about 18 points. Democrats also won gubernatorial races everywhere from Alaska to Texas.

The last few presidential elections have all been reasonably close. This makes it tempting to believe that American politics is polarized in the kind of way that Bosnia-Herzegovina is polarized, with rigid voting blocs implacably—and more or less permanently—opposing each other. But in fact there has been a tremendous amount of movement between the blocs. Over the past 20 years, the states that are considered blue, red, or purple have shifted around significantly; last night, to give just one example, James Talarico became the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate seat since 1988. The demographic coalitions of each party have also changed enormously; it was Trump’s unexpected inroad with blacks and Latinos, for example, that helped him pull off his 2024 victory.