UK general election likely to be scheduled for 14 November, expert Sir John Curtice says
Good morning. Keir Starmer will be doing his ‘Call Keir’ phone-in on LBC shortly. We heard quite a lot from him yesterday, but there is always more to ask, and he might have more to say about the timing of the general election. Despite Rishi Sunak saying yesterday that he does not expect to call a May election.
Labour sources, who spent the last few weeks talking up the prospects of a spring poll, almost certainly to roll the pitch for attacks on Sunak for “bottling” it, are claiming they are not convinced. In her London Playbook briefing for Politico, Eleni Courea reports:
Senior Labour strategists tell Playbook they still think that’s when it will take place. One senior party official bet £100 last night that the GE will happen between April and June.
But Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading elections expert, told the Today progamme this morning that for a long time he has been planning his schedule on the assumption that he will need to be on duty for an election in October or November. He said:
Now, there is beginning to be a consensus it might be 14 November.
All the parties have decided to hold their party conferences rather early next autumn.
The prime minister will end the Conservative conference on 2 October. That might be the starting gun.
Starmer is on LBC at 9am. Otherwise, the diary looks quiet today, but Sunak is doing a visit in northern England in the late morning.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Key events
Q: Will you raise the income tax threshold to help the lower paid?
Starmer says he does want to lower the tax burden for working people. But he won’t make unfunded promises he cannot keep. That is what Liz Truss did. And the economy crashed, he says.
Q: The tax take is at its highest for 70 years. One paper says there will be no tax cuts for two years under Labour. Is that your plan?
Starmer says he does not accept that. He says he wants to bring the tax burden down, but he wants to do it by promoting growth.
He says there has been too much chopping and changinng. The year before last, there were four chancellors, he says.
Keir Starmer is starting his LBC phone-in.
Nick Ferrari is presenting.
Q: You talked about Project Hope yesterday. Was the speech mission accomplished?
Yes, says Starmer. He says he wanted to weld together hope with the reassurance already provided.
Q: Some papers say the speech was thin on detail.
Starmer says every year people say this. Last year he set out five big missions in massive speeches. Then people complain he is being too ambitious, and ask if he can achieve what he wants.
And the following year – people ask what he stands for, he says.
He says, as an example, he has a mission to halve violence against women and girls. That will be hard to do, he says. But people cannot really complain that they don’t know what he stands for.
UK general election likely to be scheduled for 14 November, expert Sir John Curtice says
Good morning. Keir Starmer will be doing his ‘Call Keir’ phone-in on LBC shortly. We heard quite a lot from him yesterday, but there is always more to ask, and he might have more to say about the timing of the general election. Despite Rishi Sunak saying yesterday that he does not expect to call a May election.
Labour sources, who spent the last few weeks talking up the prospects of a spring poll, almost certainly to roll the pitch for attacks on Sunak for “bottling” it, are claiming they are not convinced. In her London Playbook briefing for Politico, Eleni Courea reports:
Senior Labour strategists tell Playbook they still think that’s when it will take place. One senior party official bet £100 last night that the GE will happen between April and June.
But Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading elections expert, told the Today progamme this morning that for a long time he has been planning his schedule on the assumption that he will need to be on duty for an election in October or November. He said:
Now, there is beginning to be a consensus it might be 14 November.
All the parties have decided to hold their party conferences rather early next autumn.
The prime minister will end the Conservative conference on 2 October. That might be the starting gun.
Starmer is on LBC at 9am. Otherwise, the diary looks quiet today, but Sunak is doing a visit in northern England in the late morning.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.