All posts tagged: recession

US stocks plunge on recession fears, Nasdaq sees worst day since 2022

US stocks plunge on recession fears, Nasdaq sees worst day since 2022

Published by Sam

NEW YORK: Wall Street stocks plummeted Monday (Mar 10) as investors fretted that uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariff policy could tip the world’s biggest economy into a recession. The moves came after Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a 2025 recession, saying there would be “a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big – we’re bringing wealth back to America”. Tech stocks led the slump, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index marking its largest one-day loss since 2022. The Nasdaq plunged by 4.0 per cent, bringing it to 17,468.32. The broad-based S&P 500 Index retreated 2.7 percent to 5,614.56 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.1 percent to 41,911.71. Major tech names saw sharp losses, with Tesla shares diving 15.4 per cent. Others among the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks – which include Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia – also sank. Source link

Mishal Husain Bursts Jeremy Hunt’s Bubble Over Economic Growth

Mishal Husain Bursts Jeremy Hunt’s Bubble Over Economic Growth

Published by skeptic

Mishal Husain did not let Jeremy Hunt boast about the UK’s economic growth today and reminded him of the disasters the country has faced under the Tories. While the chancellor was celebrating the news from the ONS that the UK is officially out of recession, the Today programme host kicked off the interview by saying: “It’s not a strong recovery is it? “Some people would call it anaemic. You’re not calling it strong are you? “That’s not what it is. The economy has barely grown over the last two years.” Hunt claimed over the last quarter, the UK had the joint-highest growth in the G7– and then blamed slow growth on the Bank of England’s high interest rates. Husain hit back: “You’re portraying yourself as the people in whose hands the economy is safe, and yet many voters, particularly those who are perhaps finding themselves re-mortgaging this month on higher rates and seeing the facts that fixed rate mortgage deals have been edging up – and others – will be remembering what happened under Liz …

British Economy Rebounds Strongly in First Quarter of the Year, Ending ‘Technical Recession’

British Economy Rebounds Strongly in First Quarter of the Year, Ending ‘Technical Recession’

Published by skeptic

LONDON (AP) — The British economy bounced back strongly in the first three months of the year, bringing to an end to what economists termed a “technical recession”, official figures showed Friday. The Office for National Statistics said the economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter from the previous three-month period, with broad-based strength across the crucial services sector in particular. The increase was higher than the 0.4% predicted by economists and the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2021 when the economy was rebounding following the sharp contraction during the coronavirus pandemic. It comes after two quarters of modest declines, which in the U.K. is defined as a recession. Despite the quarterly increase, the British economy has barely grown over the past year. It has been hobbled by interest rates at 16-year highs of 5.25%. There was hope Thursday that they may be on the way down soon. Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey indicated that a rate cut may be on the cards in June if inflation continues to trend downwards. The …

UK economy emerges strongly from recession

UK economy emerges strongly from recession

Published by skeptic

The U.K. economy grew for the first time in a year in the first quarter of this year, exiting a shallow recession in the second half of 2023. Gross domestic product grew by 0.6 percent in the three months to March and was up 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in a first estimate for the quarter on Friday. That was stronger than the 0.4 percent expected by analysts ahead of time, due partly to the manufacturing sector performing better than expected in March. Manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent, rather than contracting by 0.5 percent as expected. The figures come a day after the Bank of England signaled it’s getting closer to cutting interest rates for the first time since the post-pandemic surge in inflation. This is a developing story. Source link

Rare Win For Rishi Sunak As UK Gets Out Of Recession

Rare Win For Rishi Sunak As UK Gets Out Of Recession

Published by skeptic

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, after a period of recession at the end of 2023. PM Rishi Sunak had an unexpected win on Friday when the Office for National Statistics announced the economy grew by 0.4% in March, with a growth 0.2% in February. Gross domestic product (GDP) outgrew expectations this year – economists told Reuters news agency that they expected the overall figure to just by 0.4%. This is the most significant economic growth the UK has seen since the end of the Covid pandemic. The UK faced two consecutive three-month periods of economic contraction at the end of 2023, resulting in a short and shallow recession. It also means the prime minister finally gets to tick off another one of his five pledges – “grow the economy”. However, the overall picture for the country is still not so great – the OECD has forecast little extra growth for the UK over the next 18 months. The think tank recently cut its forecast for its British …

UK no longer in recession, official figures show | Business News

UK no longer in recession, official figures show | Business News

Published by skeptic

The UK economy is no longer in recession, according to official figures. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Economists had predicted the figure would be 0.4%. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it showed the economy had “turned a corner”, adding: “We know things are still tough for many people, but the plan is working, and we must stick to it.” A recession, which is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts, was declared in February. It came after the ONS said GDP, a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December. It followed a contraction of 0.1% in the three months from July to September. The slump was blamed on reduced consumer spending power amid high inflation and energy bills. Months of wet weather also contributed to keeping shoppers at home, commentators said. The latest figures also revealed better-than-expected growth for March. GDP was up 0.4% during the month, which was higher than the 0.1% …

“The US Economy Is Inverted”: How The Flood Of Illegal Immigration Is Delaying The Official US Recession

“The US Economy Is Inverted”: How The Flood Of Illegal Immigration Is Delaying The Official US Recession

Published by skeptic

By Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist at BCA Research Summary The US economy is highly unusually ‘inverted’. The constraint on the economy is not labor demand, it is labor supply. Hence, the US economy has highly unusually entered a labor demand recession without entering a GDP recession. Nevertheless, for the stock market, a labour demand recession implies a profits headwind, because it is only when profits come under pressure that labour demand goes into recession. Against this, wage disinflation would allow long-duration bond yields to fall, which would provide a countervailing valuation tailwind. The pandemic might seem like a distant memory, but for the US economy the pandemic’s legacy is still the big story. For the first time in at least fifty years, US labor supply is running well below labor demand. The big story is that the US economy is ‘inverted.’ Therefore, we must analyze the post-pandemic inverted economy very differently to the pre-pandemic economy. Normally, labor demand – being less than labor supply – is the constraint on economic output and thereby drives the …

“It’s A Far Deeper Recession Than Publicized…” Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Screams Stagflation

“It’s A Far Deeper Recession Than Publicized…” Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Screams Stagflation

Published by skeptic

“Many good things may happen, but the actual occurrence remains to be seen…” That’s about as rosy a picture as one could glean from the respondents to today’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey. Against expectations of a small improvement from -11.3 to -10.0, the headline sentiment gauge dropped to -14.4 (the lowest end of analysts’ forecasts). Furthermore, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month over month. Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated declines this month. The new orders index – a key measure of demand – dropped 17 points to -11.8 after briefly turning positive last month. The capacity utilization index edged down five points to -5.7, and the shipments index plunged from 0.1 to -15.4. The decline in new orders came alongside a surge in prices as raw materials costs rose to 13-month highs… Source: Bloomberg That has the stench of stagflation lathered all over it. It’s notr a pretty picture at all under the hood… …

FTSE 100 Live 13 March: Index closes at another nine-month high as miners surge

FTSE 100 Live 13 March: Index closes at another nine-month high as miners surge

Published by Sam

He says: “The FTSE 100 was little changed in afternoon trading on Wednesday, despite advances for several major commodity-related components. Glencore, one of the world’s biggest marketers of oil, led the index, rising 3%, as the oil price pushed higher. Copper miner Antofagasta improved by more than 2%, while Anglo American, the world’s largest platinum producer, rose 1.5%, alongside a rebound in the price of platinum. Source link

UK unemployment rises and wages growth falls in recession | UK unemployment and employment statistics

UK unemployment rises and wages growth falls in recession | UK unemployment and employment statistics

Published by skeptic

Unemployment rose and wage growth slowed in the three months to January as the UK labour market showed signs of weakness, reflecting a broader slowdown in the economy. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 3.9 in January from 3.8% in December according to the Office for National Statistics, while annual average wages growth including bonuses fell to 5.6% from 5.8% in the previous month. City economists had expected unemployment to reman flat and pay growth to slow to a more modest 5.7%. Pay without bonuses also ticked lower, to 6.1% from 6.2% over the same three-month period. Employers cut back on hiring new staff, pushing the number of advertised vacancies down on the quarter by 43,000 to 908,000, indicating that the recession during the last six months of 2023 took a slightly bigger toll on the labour market than first estimated. The Bank of England has waited to see signs that wage growth is slowing before making a move to reduce interest rates, and is expected to view the latest figures as another reason to …