All posts tagged: pollster

Pollster Says There Is “Systematic” Bias In UK Election Polling Which Overstates Labour

Pollster Says There Is “Systematic” Bias In UK Election Polling Which Overstates Labour

Published by Sam

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a historic victory in this year’s general election (Alamy) 4 min read28 August The co-founder of a leading polling company has said that there is “systematic” bias across the polling industry that led to the Labour Party being overstated in the run-up to the 2024 General Election, as well as in previous elections. Martin Boon, Co-founder and Managing Director at polling company Deltapoll, joined Professor Will Jennings and Conservative peer and commentator Lord Robert Hayward on Wednesday at an event in Parliament to reflect on the 2024 General Election polling. According to Jennings, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton, the election on 4 July was “not a great night” for UK pollsters. Graph showing the historical trend of polling errors in UK general elections (Professor Will Jennings, University of Southampton) He pointed to the fact that the polling over-estimation of support for Labour in 2024 was the highest on record and the overall polling error of the margin between the Conservative Party …

Pollster Mocks Rishi Sunak Over UK Hung Parliament Claim

Pollster Mocks Rishi Sunak Over UK Hung Parliament Claim

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Rishi Sunak’s claim that the local election results show the UK is heading for a hung parliament is “for the birds”, according to a top pollster. Ben Page, global chief executive of Ipsos, said the Conservatives are as popular as “a cup of cold sick” after the prime minister insisted there was still all to play for in the general election. His comments, on Times Radio, came after the prime minister admitted Labour were on course to win the election – but would fail to get a Commons majority. Sunak based his comments on analysis of last week’s local election results, in which the Tories lost nearly 500 seats, by polling expert Michael Thrasher. He put Labour’s national lead over the Conservatives is just seven points, well short of what opinion polls have been saying for months. However, others pointed out that Thrasher’s forecast was based on the assumption that Scotland – where there were no local elections last week – would vote the same way it did in 2019, when Labour won just one …

Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation was followed by collapse in SNP support, says pollster | Politics | News

Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation was followed by collapse in SNP support, says pollster | Politics | News

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The year which followed Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation as Scotland’s First Minister accelerated a decline in the SNP’s opinion poll leads, experts have said. And pollster Mark Diffley, a former director of Ipsos Mori in Edinburgh, predicted that the party’s drop in support, coupled with the related upturn in support for Labour, would make the upcoming general election the most competitive in Scotland since 2010. Ms Sturgeon stepped down on March 28, 2023 after more than eight years in the job, with Humza Yousaf replacing her. Mr Diffley said: “What seems to have happened is that Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and then, equally as impactfully, the police investigation into the party finances, have sort of accelerated the fall in support that the SNP has seen.” There were signs of SNP support falling before Ms Sturgeon’s Bute House announcement, Mr Diffley pointed out. “So, gone from in the polls an average of sort of mid 40s, down to an average of being in the mid 30s.” If the current polls were borne out in an election, he …

Rishi Sunak’s Pollster Quits No.10 Warning Tories Heading For ‘Almighty’ Defeat

Rishi Sunak’s Pollster Quits No.10 Warning Tories Heading For ‘Almighty’ Defeat

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Rishi Sunak’s own pollster has quit No.10 having concluded the country is on course for a “decade of Labour rule”. Will Dry said the Conservative Party was “heading for the most almighty of defeats” at the general election. In a statement to The Sun, he also warned that if Nigel Farage returned to frontline politics with Reform UK then the Tories “essentially won’t exist by Christmas”. Dry is reported to have helped draw up the questions for the recent huge YouGov poll of 14,000 people on behalf of the Conservative Britain Alliance group that suggested the Tories were heading for a 1997-style wipeout. It comes after former cabinet minister Simon Clarke called for Sunak to be ousted as Tory leader as the party was set to be “massacred” at the ballot box. His intervention was met with a fierce backlash from other Tory MPs, including former home secretary Priti Patel who slammed it as “facile and divisive self indulgence”. In an interview with the BBC, Clarke said he was acting “on my own” and was …

Disaster for Sunak as pollster warns Tories are ‘haemorrhaging’ votes to Reform UK | Politics | News

Disaster for Sunak as pollster warns Tories are ‘haemorrhaging’ votes to Reform UK | Politics | News

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Rishi Sunak’s Tories are ‘haemorrhaging” votes to Reform UK, a pollster has warned, with the embattled Prime Minister on the ropes after Tuesday night’s significant backbench rebellion – and the resignation of two of his ministers. Labour’s lead over the Conservative Party is currently a whopping 17 points, according to Savanta’s latest voting intention poll, published this evening (January 16). The poll sees Labour on 44 percent of the vote, down one point from the week before, and the Conservatives on 27 percent, up by one point in the same period. Interviews with 2,148 UK adults aged 18 and over took place were conducted over the course of the weekend roughly 60 Tories voted for two amendments to Mr Sunak’s Rwanda Bill, proposed by Robert Jenrick and Sir Bill Cash. Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith – both deputy chairmen of the party – were among the rebels, and tendered their resignations. Commenting, Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “The polling picture for Rishi Sunak has looked bleak ever since he took office, and …

Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will do ‘most damage’ to Rishi Sunak | Politics | News

Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will do ‘most damage’ to Rishi Sunak | Politics | News

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Richard Tice backs Ben Habib in Wellingborough by-election Nigel Farage is in a position to inflict significant damage to Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party if he opts to make a sensational return to frontline politics using Reform UK, a pollster has predicted. Chris Hopkins believes the eurosceptic party – now led by former Brexit Party MEP Richard Tice – could shave enough support of the Tories in some key marginals to allow the Labour Party to win them. However, he also warned Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer the prospect of a new left-wing party led by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn would represent a threat of its own – not least should the independent MP opt to run against Sadiq Khan in the forthcoming London Mayoral election. Reform UK set out its strategy for 2024 during a press conference last week, during which Mr Tice insisted he would be fielding candidates in all 650 constituencies and ruled out the possibility of an election pact with the Tories. Mr Tice also took the opportunity to unveil Ben Habib, …

Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will do ‘most damage’ to Rishi Sunak | Politics | News

Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will do ‘most damage’ to Rishi Sunak | Politics | News

Published by skeptic

Richard Tice backs Ben Habib in Wellingborough by-election Nigel Farage is in a position to inflict significant damage to Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party if he opts to make a sensational return to frontline politics using Reform UK, a pollster has predicted. Chris Hopkins believes the eurosceptic party – now led by former Brexit Party MEP Richard Tice – could shave enough support of the Tories in some key marginals to allow the Labour Party to win them. However, he also warned Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer the prospect of a new left-wing party led by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn would represent a threat of its own – not least should the independent MP opt to run against Sadiq Khan in the forthcoming London Mayoral election. Reform UK set out its strategy for 2024 during a press conference last week, during which Mr Tice insisted he would be fielding candidates in all 650 constituencies and ruled out the possibility of an election pact with the Tories. Mr Tice also took the opportunity to unveil Ben Habib, …

Nigel Farage’s return would single-handedly crush the Tories, top pollster claims | Politics | News

Nigel Farage’s return would single-handedly crush the Tories, top pollster claims | Politics | News

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Nigel Farage could all but end any hopes Rishi Sunak has of keeping the keys to No10, according to a top pollster. JL Partners co-founder James Johnson, who formerly worked in Downing Street, revealed that Mr Farage could singlehandedly doom the Tories. This comes amid fevered speculation that the former Brexit Party leader could lead Reform UK into the next general election. The party’s current leader, Richard Tice, said this week that he was “very confident” Mr Farage will play a role for Reform UK as he eyes a return to frontline politics. Speaking to GB News, Mr Johnson said Mr Farage could boost Reform UK’s support by five percent in the polls if he returned. The pollster explained: “Farage leading Reform gets them from 10 percent to 15 percent, or eight percent to 13 percent, and that makes a big difference. “If Farage became leader of Reform, I think that would very significantly boost their chances in terms of both vote share and in terms of their impact on the election. “They’d have a …

Top pollster claims Reform UK could send Rish Sunak into meltdown with by-election result | Politics | News

Top pollster claims Reform UK could send Rish Sunak into meltdown with by-election result | Politics | News

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A former No 10 pollster has warned that the upcoming by-election in Wellingborough could send the Conservative Party into meltdown. Speaking to GB News, JL Partners’ co-founder James Johnson said that the Tories will be more worried about Reform UK’s performance, instead of Labour. Mr Johnson said that double-digit figures in support for Reform UK at the by-election could send shockwaves through the Conservatives. Voters are expected to go to the polls in Wellingborough in February 2024 after Tory MP Peter Bone was ousted through a recall petition amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Former Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib will stand as Reform UK’s candidate in the constituency, and he has already come out fighting.   Mr Habib vowed “to hold this wretched Government to account” while party leader Richard Tice blasted both Tories and Labour. During his New Year speech this week, Mr Tice added: “Only Reform UK is now the party of the working class, who will stop mass immigration, who will scrap net zero, who will help solve the cost of living …

Top pollster pinpoints major clue Rishi Sunak has given away exact general election date | Politics | News

Top pollster pinpoints major clue Rishi Sunak has given away exact general election date | Politics | News

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A top political expert has pinpointed a major clue given away by Rishi Sunak which reveals what may be the exact date of the next general election. The Prime Minister revealed on Thursday that it is his “working assumption” he would trigger the vote for the “second half of this year”. Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said he believes the PM could fire the “starting gun” for the election in his speech to close the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham on October 2. He told the BBC: “Now, there is beginning to be a consensus [the general election] might be November 14. All the parties have decided to hold their party conferences rather early next autumn. “The Prime Minister will end the Conservative conference on October 2 – that might be the starting gun.” Sir John’s date ties with a Sunday Times report that the Conservatives’ election strategist Isaac Levido has pencilled in the same date, which is nine days after Americans vote in the US presidentital election. Sir John said …