All posts tagged: polls

The Polls Are Sending Trump a Message

The Polls Are Sending Trump a Message

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. “People are very happy with this presidency,” President Donald Trump said in an interview with The Atlantic last week. “I’ve had great polls.” That wasn’t true then, and it’s even less true now. As Trump hits his 100th day in office today, pollsters have been releasing new surveys, and the results are ugly. NBC News finds that 55 percent of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the job, but that’s rosy compared with the 59 percent in a CNN poll. An ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that just 39 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance—the lowest ever recorded, going back to 1945, and smashing through the previous record of 42 percent, set by one Donald Trump in 2017. More than half of Americans say that Trump is a “dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he …

What the polls say about Trump’s presidency at 100 days

What the polls say about Trump’s presidency at 100 days

As President Donald Trump hits the 100-day mark of his presidency, a spate of new polling shows significant warning signs on signature issues like the economy and cutting the size of government.   Trump is earning slightly higher marks than at this point in his first term, and his overall standing is boosted by a coalescing of Republicans behind their president. But Trump’s low-to-mid-40s approval ratings are also far from the type of honeymoon ratings Americans gave his predecessors. He has also lost ground on the economy, with more voters expressing displeasure with his handling of inflation and with his sweeping push for global tariffs, which have roiled the stock market and scrambled global alliances. And while immigration remains Trump’s strongest issue in most surveys, several recent polls have found his public support slipping. Here’s a look at what the polls say about Trump’s job performance right now. Macy Sinreich / NBC News; Getty Images Approval rating There’s a clear trend when it comes to Trump’s approval rating around the 100-day mark: It’s slightly higher than …

How the polls accurately forecast a Trump victory

How the polls accurately forecast a Trump victory

Donald Trump’s shocking Election Day victory wasn’t the only comeback on Election Day. The polling industry, which suffered serious black eyes after drastically understating Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 contests, came through in 2024 by correctly gauging the extent to which voters would cast their ballots for the president elect. “Polls did pretty well, and performance seems to be getting better as the vote-counting continues,” Dr. Christopher Wlezien, a professor of government at the University of Texas in Austin, told Salon. “Using the final FiveThirtyEight numbers, national polls appear to be off by 2.3% points and polls in swing states about 2.5% on average. These are below average errors, e.g., the average error in the last week’s polls for all presidential elections between 1952 and 2020 is 2.5%.” The bad news for the polling industry is that, to the extent that the polls were off, it was once again by understating Trump’s support. Yet this time there is an important difference: The polls were only off to the degree that one expects …

Chaplains at the polls, prayers by faith leaders mark historic Election Day

Chaplains at the polls, prayers by faith leaders mark historic Election Day

WASHINGTON (RNS) — At the headquarters of the National Council of Negro Women Inc., about midway along Pennsylvania Avenue between the White House and the U.S. Capitol, the Revs. Barbara Williams-Skinner and Jim Wallis sat in a briefing room to get a noontime update Tuesday (Nov. 5) from state faith leaders working with some 900 poll chaplains across the country.  Most of the poll chaplains, all volunteers for Faiths United to Save Democracy, an organization convened by Williams-Skinner, Wallis and Sojourners President Adam Russell Taylor since the last presidential race to keep peace at the voting sites, reported a relatively problem-free election so far. Not far from downtown, at Washington National Cathedral, some 300 people had stopped by to pray during an Election Day vigil before the cathedral’s clergy, with other Christian, Jewish and Muslim leaders, shared prayers and sacred readings from their traditions at a service that began at noon. It was a quintessentially Washington day, as, five miles apart, people focused on prayer and the polls after a fraught lead-up to a historic …

Prayer, contemplation and comfort food as voters go to polls

Prayer, contemplation and comfort food as voters go to polls

(RNS) — As the nation awaits the results of Election Day, some houses of worship are opening their doors for prayer and faith leaders are gathering in online prayer sessions. In the nation’s capital and far beyond it, people across faith traditions and across the political aisle are gathering for prayer this week as Americans head to the ballot box for the 2024 presidential election after a long campaign season that saw bitter partisan battles and revealed a closely divided electorate. “We are such a nation divided, and this division and this polarization is even more than the political differences,” said the Rev. Kelly Brown Douglas, canon theologian for Washington National Cathedral, in an interview on Saturday (Nov. 2). “People have begun to see the other as the other, and that’s not who we’re supposed to be.” The cathedral, which has espoused an initiative it calls “A Better Way” to help Americans listen to and learn from each other, is hosting services on Election Day and the next day that can be accessed online and …

Voters more trusting of elections when polls are supervised by multiple groups

Voters more trusting of elections when polls are supervised by multiple groups

A recent study has shown that voters are more likely to believe vote counts are accurate when election results are monitored by a range of different officials, including government election workers, political party representatives, and non-partisan observers. The research suggests that having various monitoring groups present at polling places can increase voter confidence in the election process, regardless of voters’ political leanings or pre-existing trust in electoral bodies. The study, published in the Journal of Experimental Political Science, was conducted by Fanisi Mbozi from New York University Abu Dhabi. Mbozi’s work builds on prior research that has largely focused on the role of non-partisan observers in enhancing perceptions of election integrity. However, Mbozi’s research expands this scope to examine how political party agents and government officials also contribute to voter confidence in the reliability of vote counts. By investigating these additional influences, the study sheds light on how diverse polling supervision might counter public distrust in election processes, especially in regions where vote-counting disputes are common. The motivation behind this research stems from recent election …

French women’s rights supporters march against far right ahead of snap polls

French women’s rights supporters march against far right ahead of snap polls

Thousands of people on Sunday rallied in Paris and other cities across France to denounce the far-right National Rally party’s “false feminism” and the “real danger” it poses to women’s rights. The demonstrations came exactly a week before France’s snap parliamentary elections, with polls showing the National Rally and its allies leading the first round of the vote. Source link

Rishi Sunaks Nightmare Reform UK Surges In Polls

Rishi Sunaks Nightmare Reform UK Surges In Polls

Support for Reform UK has surged since Nigel Farage became the party’s leader and announced he is running to be an MP. In a nightmare scenario for Rishi Sunak, five new opinion polls tonight showed the right-wing party is squeezing Tory support across the country. That means the Conservatives are at risk of losing even more seats than would otherwise have been the case – putting Labour well on course for a thumping Commons majority. A Redfield and Winton Strategies poll put Reform on 17%, just two points behind the Tories, who are down 1 point on 19%. Survation showed support for Reform had soared by 7 points since last week, putting them on 15%. The Tories were on 23%, again down 1 point. Pollsters Focaldata also showed Reform support growing, this time by 2 points to 14%, with the Tories down 1 point on 25%. BMG Research have Reform up 5 points on 16%, with the Conservatives dropping by 4 points to 23%. Another poll published on Friday morning by Techne showed Reform up …

Indians have raised ‘a voice for democracy’ online and in the polls in historic vote

Indians have raised ‘a voice for democracy’ online and in the polls in historic vote

Despite the heightened anxieties over the conduct of a free and fair election, India’s democracy rallied in the 2024 election, with voters denying Prime Minister Narendra Modi a landslide win. Much of the fight occurred online as independent journalists and influencers challenged the government narrative echoed on mainstream media. The night before the 2024 Indian election results were to be announced, Dhruv Rathee released a “final message” YouTube video that was a cry from the heart. The 29-year-old vlogger and social media activist is a cyber sensation in India, adored by his fans, reviled by his detractors, and acknowledged as one of Time magazine’s 2023 Next Generation Leaders. During the mammoth, six-week election this year, Rathee emerged as a powerful voice of dissent against Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist policies and the democratic backsliding the prime minister spearheaded for a decade. As India awaited the Modi “landslide” victory – as the mainstream media exit polls had forecast – Rathee’s 25-minute video, released late Monday, sounded like the last words of a man facing the gallows. The …

UK general election opinion polls tracker: Labour significantly ahead of Tories as campaign continues | Opinion polls

UK general election opinion polls tracker: Labour significantly ahead of Tories as campaign continues | Opinion polls

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called the next UK general election for 4 July 2024. After 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022. The Guardian is tracking latest polling averages, sourced from all major British polling companies, until election day. Current voting intention Average of polls over a moving 10-day period, showing GB voting intention Voting intention over time Latest average of all polls over a moving 10-day period, showing Great Britain voting intention The Scottish National party (SNP) is not included in the data the Guardian is using in the chart above. In Great Britain-wide polls, the SNP vote sits between 2% and 4% of national vote share. But its geographical concentration in Scotland means it will win many more seats than other small parties with a similar national vote share, such as the Greens. Targeted Scotland-only polls give a much better indication of how well it will do in the next election than the nationwide polls above. Polls only go …