All posts tagged: polling

Is Reform really pulling ahead of Labour? Polling expert on what to really make of Farage’s supposed lead

Is Reform really pulling ahead of Labour? Polling expert on what to really make of Farage’s supposed lead

Published by Sam

Much has been made of the news that Reform has overtaken Labour in voting intentions in a recent poll. The poll, produced by market research agency Find Out Now, put the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 24% and Labour on 23%. Most recent polls show that Labour is still ahead of Reform, but only by a small margin. So while it is too early to say that Reform is beating Labour, it is nonetheless snapping at the heels of both Labour and the Conservatives. If this pattern of support continues up to the local elections in May next year, Reform is very likely to win a lot more councillors. Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made. Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday. These results reflect the fact that Labour has experienced a very short honeymoon in government, largely related to the unpopular decisions it has made, such as the means testing of the …

NSS: Prayer polling highlights absurdity of imposed worship in UK

NSS: Prayer polling highlights absurdity of imposed worship in UK

Published by skeptic

The National Secular Society has said prayers imposed in schools, parliament and councils should be ended, after statistics revealed the United Kingdom has the lowest observance of daily prayer out of all countries surveyed. Recent analysis by the Pew Research Center has revealed less than 10% of people in the UK pray every day – the lowest percentage out of 102 countries. This is also considerably lower than the global median of 46%. The same analysis also revealed people in the UK are among the least likely to say religion is very important, at less than 20%. Only Switzerland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Estonia and Japan have a smaller percentage of people who think religion is important. The analysis used data collected between 2008 and 2023. The figures are consistent with many other surveys indicating waning religiosity in the UK. The most recent censuses revealed nonreligious people to be the second largest religion or belief group in England, the largest group in Wales, and the majority in Scotland. However, prayer is imposed in several aspects of …

Pollster Says There Is “Systematic” Bias In UK Election Polling Which Overstates Labour

Pollster Says There Is “Systematic” Bias In UK Election Polling Which Overstates Labour

Published by Sam

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a historic victory in this year’s general election (Alamy) 4 min read28 August The co-founder of a leading polling company has said that there is “systematic” bias across the polling industry that led to the Labour Party being overstated in the run-up to the 2024 General Election, as well as in previous elections. Martin Boon, Co-founder and Managing Director at polling company Deltapoll, joined Professor Will Jennings and Conservative peer and commentator Lord Robert Hayward on Wednesday at an event in Parliament to reflect on the 2024 General Election polling. According to Jennings, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton, the election on 4 July was “not a great night” for UK pollsters. Graph showing the historical trend of polling errors in UK general elections (Professor Will Jennings, University of Southampton) He pointed to the fact that the polling over-estimation of support for Labour in 2024 was the highest on record and the overall polling error of the margin between the Conservative Party …

Why are Green parties polling badly for the European elections? | Green politics

Why are Green parties polling badly for the European elections? | Green politics

Published by skeptic

Voters may deal Green parties a blow that costs them up to one-third of their seats, if polls before this week’s European elections prove correct, in a shift that could lead to a rollback of climate policies with the effects rippling far beyond the continent. At first glance, the projected slump in support – which follows months of protests from farmers against environmental rules – reads like a backlash against climate policies set by politicians who tried to move too far, too fast. But political scientists are unconvinced by that narrative. There is little data to support fears of a societal “greenlash” from voters unhappy with the costs of the transition, according to the authors of a recent survey of 15,000 voters in France, Germany and Poland. While local evidence from the Netherlands shows how a specific climate policy can push people away from the Greens and towards the far right, on a broader level researchers have found support for climate policies falls mostly along ideological lines. So what explains the poor polling numbers? The …

People Think Disability Benefits Are Too Low, New Polling Shows

People Think Disability Benefits Are Too Low, New Polling Shows

Published by skeptic

The government announced its desire to reform its core disability benefit in April. (Alamy) 6 min read2 hr Exclusive: A significant majority of people think disability benefits are in need of reform and that current payment levels are too low, according to new polling by Savanta for PoliticsHome. In the survey of 2,280 people, conducted after the government announced its intention to reform Personal Independent Payments (PIP) last month, 39 per cent of people said disability benefits were in need of “major reform”, with 37 per cent responding they were in need of “some reform”. 12 per cent of people said they were “not in need of much reform”, with just 4 per cent responding they were “not in need of reform at all”.  Respondents also believed that the current rates of disability benefit were too low, with 17 per cent saying they were “far too low”, and 21 per cent saying they were “slightly too low”. 10 per cent said current levels were “slightly too high”, with 8 per cent feeling levels were …

“The Polling Data Has Been Wrong All Along”: Watch Biden Deny Economic Reality In Train-Wreck CNN Interview

“The Polling Data Has Been Wrong All Along”: Watch Biden Deny Economic Reality In Train-Wreck CNN Interview

Published by skeptic

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, During a brutal CNN interview aired Wednesday, Joe Biden looked shocked when host Erin Burnett reeled off a list of stats detailing how bad the economy is. Instead of suggesting how he is going to improve the situation, Biden denied any of it was real and claimed every poll showing Americans favouring Trump on the economy is wrong. “Voters, by a wide margin, trust Trump more on the economy,” Burnett noted, before listing possible reasons for that including the cost of buying a home having doubled, real income accounting for inflation being down, economic growth being way short of expectations and consumer confidence being near a two year low. “Are you worried that you’re running out of time to turn [the economy] around?” Burnett asked Biden. “We’ve already turned it around,” Biden bizarrely claimed, before adding that “the polling data has been wrong all along.” Biden looks shocked as CNN host Erin Burnett reels off a list of stats detailing how bad the economy is. Biden claims he’s already …

Boris Johnson pays tribute to polling station staff who refused to let him vote without photo ID | Politics News

Boris Johnson pays tribute to polling station staff who refused to let him vote without photo ID | Politics News

Published by Sam

Boris Johnson has paid tribute to the villagers who Sky News revealed turned him away from a polling station when he tried to vote without a valid photo ID – under rules he introduced. The former prime minister said he attempted to cast his ballot using a magazine sleeve with his name and address on as proof but was prevented from doing so. The requirement to provide photo ID was introduced by Mr Johnson during his time in Downing Street as part of the Elections Act 2022. The move was controversial over fears it would bar people from voting, particularly among disadvantaged groups. Local election live: Khan likely to cling on to London – as West Midlands on knife-edge Mr Johnson had been seeking to vote in South Oxfordshire, where a police and crime commissioner for Thames Valley was being elected. Writing in his Daily Mail column, he said: “I want to pay a particular tribute to the three villagers who on Thursday rightly turned me away when I appeared in the polling station with …

Polling Expert Warns Tories Of Annihilation In General Election

Polling Expert Warns Tories Of Annihilation In General Election

Published by skeptic

The Conservatives risk being “almost annihilated” at the general election, one of the country’s leading polling experts has warned. Professor Michael Thrasher said the results of the local elections looked to be “very bad news” for Rishi Sunak. The Sky News election analyst said the Conservative vote had collapsed among its base of Leave voters. Early results showed the Tories are well on course to lose hundreds of council seats across England. “If the Conservative fall as low as these council elections so far appear to be telling us, then we’re in a situation that we were in [back] in 1997, where the Conservative vote fell so far down that they were almost annihilated,” Thrasher said on Friday morning. “The same fate awaits the Conservatives at the next general election if their vote slides this far below, say, 30% in a general election.” Keir Starmer said Labour had taken a “giant step” towards forming the next government, as the party seized control of key Tory councils across England. “We want a general election, we want …

Boris Johnson turned away from polling station after forgetting ID | Politics News

Boris Johnson turned away from polling station after forgetting ID | Politics News

Published by Sam

Boris Johnson was turned away from his local polling station when trying to vote in the local elections after forgetting to bring an acceptable form of photo identification. Sky News understands polling station staff were forced to send the former prime minister away after he initially failed to comply with legislation he introduced while he was in Downing Street. Mr Johnson, who introduced the Elections Act requiring photo ID in 2022, was attempting to cast his ballot in South Oxfordshire, where a police and crime commissioner for the Thames Valley was being selected. Follow live: Tories expecting to lose hundreds of seats in council contests He posted on X on Thursday morning: “The polls are now open. Vote Conservative today!” The Elections Act has proved controversial, with fears that it would prove a deterrent to voting, particularly among disadvantaged groups. In 2023, the Electoral Commission warned the new law, which requires people to show acceptable forms of photo ID when voting in person, could exclude hundreds of thousands of people, including those with disabilities and …

Boris Johnson Turned Away From Polling Station Due To Lack Of ID

Boris Johnson Turned Away From Polling Station Due To Lack Of ID

Published by Sam

Boris Johnson was turned away from his local polling station today for not having the necessary identification. The former prime minister – who introduced the controversial voter ID legislation when he was in Downing Street – tried to cast his local elections ballot in South Oxfordshire. However, he was blocked from doing so by officials because he did not have any photographic evidence of who he was. An embarrassed Johnson had to go home to collect some ID before finally returning to the polling station. A spokesman for the ex-PM said: “Mr Johnson voted Conservative.” The mix-up is particularly embarrassing for Johnson because he previously described claims that the voter ID rules could prevent people from voting as “complete nonsense”. Speaking in 2021, he said: “What we want to do is to protect democracy, the transparency and the integrity of the electoral process, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask first time voters to produce some evidence of identity.” Incredible. When I told Boris Johnson three years ago that his Voter ID law would …