The Fed’s “Dot Plot” Will Look Like A Meaningless, Infinite Polka-Dot Installation
By Michael Every of Rabobank As expected, the RBA left rates on hold at 4.35%, but provided succor in replacing a tightening bias with “not ruling anything in or out.” That leaves a lot to the imagination of those who have mortgages, and/or would like house prices to continue to make them multi-millionaires without having to do any work. However, as our Ben Picton noted, the RBA added rates are only “slightly” restrictive, which implies a neutral rate only slightly lower than 4.35%. Moreover, it thinks unemployment, now 4.1%, needs to rise to 4.5% before the labor market is back in balance, and Ben thinks the re-regulation seen there of late means it might have to be as high as 5%: without that, it’s hard to see how the RBA’s assumption that sluggish productivity growth picks up again, and torrid wages growth slows down can be simultaneously achieved. Overall, Ben still thinks rates are on hold until November, and we only get two 25bp cuts in total. The BOJ’s tiny rate hike and end to …