All posts tagged: intended effect

If Russia wins – The Atlantic

If Russia wins – The Atlantic

This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. Ukrainian defenses are in danger of being destroyed and overrun because House Republicans refuse to provide ammunition and aid. If Russia wins this war, the consequences could be catastrophic. First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic: What Could Happen Ukraine is fighting for the lives of its people and its very existence, and it is running out of ammunition. If the United States does not step back in with aid, Russia could eventually win this war. Despite the twaddle from propagandists in Moscow (and a few academics in the United States), Russia’s war is not about NATO, or borders, or the balance of power. The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin intends to absorb Ukraine into a new Russian empire, and he will eradicate the Ukrainians if they refuse to accept his rule. Europe is in the midst of …

The Theory of Hamas’s Catastrophic Success

The Theory of Hamas’s Catastrophic Success

Three days after Hamas’s attack on Israel, I called the operation a “catastrophic success.” Now Hamas itself is saying something similar. A strange report in Middle East Eye (a publication funded by Hamas-friendly Qatar) quotes Hamas leaders admitting that they intended to commit heinous war crimes, but not at this scale. Hamas “had in mind to take between 20 and 30 hostages,” a source told the reporter. “They had not bargained on the collapse of [Israel’s] Gaza Division. This produced a much bigger result.” By “bigger result,” the source presumably meant the murder, torture, and dismemberment of more than 1,400 Israelis, Thais, Nepalis, and others. Another bigger-than-anticipated result might be the invasion of Gaza. Had the dead and kidnapped numbered in the dozens, Israel would have had to consider its options. Once Hamas broke the three- and then four-digit barriers, Israel’s commitment to destroy Hamas completely became inevitable. Hamas’s main military benefactor, Iran, tends to mount attacks just under the threshold of causing all-out war. That pattern keeps the geopolitical consequences manageable. Hamas’s attack crossed …

Election Denialism Is the GOP’s New Litmus Test

Election Denialism Is the GOP’s New Litmus Test

One paradox of the current House Republican majority, and a sign of the deep cleavages within it, is that having sought to overturn the 2020 presidential election can be both disqualifying and essential to becoming speaker of the House. After Jim Jordan of Ohio’s campaign to become speaker flamed out, The Washington Post reported that one reason some colleagues refused to vote for him was his vocal role in trying to prevent the inauguration of Joe Biden. Following Jordan’s exit, nine Republicans announced bids for the role, seven of whom had voted not to certify the 2020 election. The next GOP nominee, however, was Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who voted in favor of certifying the election. That vote—on a matter for which there was no evidence of fraud and no evidence of theft—helped doom Emmer, who withdrew without even seeing a floor vote. Former President Donald Trump, along with some allies, mobilized to block Emmer, citing his certification vote, criticism of Trump after the January 6 riot at the Capitol, and perceived weak …

Israel Is Walking Into a Trap

Israel Is Walking Into a Trap

It’s a trap. Hamas’s ruthless and spectacular attack on southern Israel last Saturday was many things: an atrocity, a display of militant ingenuity, and a demonstration of the weakness of Israeli intelligence and defenses. Israel and the Palestinians have a long history of brutality against each other, but the Hamas killing spree outdoes anything since Israeli-controlled Christian militias massacred unarmed Palestinian refugees in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps outside of Beirut in 1982. It may even have been the single most brutal act by either side in the 100-year-old conflict. But above all, it was intended as a trap—one that Israel appears about to fall into. Hamas’s leaders and their Iranian backers have a conscious strategy. Like almost all other acts of spectacularly bloodthirsty terrorism, Hamas’s assault on southern Israel was designed to provoke an emotional and equally or even more outrageous response by the targeted society. Hamas and Iran are attempting to goad the Israelis into Gaza for a prolonged confrontation—which is to say that the intended effect is precisely the ground assault …