All posts tagged: improbable

Is Belief in Improbable Theories Ever Warranted? A Fortune Teller’s Own Death Card

Is Belief in Improbable Theories Ever Warranted? A Fortune Teller’s Own Death Card

For years, I have been fascinated by the irrationality of science denial. When people typically engage in science denial, the problem is not simply that they deny well-tested empirical theories for which there is ample evidence but that they also usually subscribe to an alternative belief for which there is little to no evidence. Of course in science one cannot prove a theory is true no matter how good its evidence; unlike Euclidian geometry or deductive logic, science is about probability, not certainty. This sometimes provides a tiny crack of hope to a denier who will somehow jump to the conclusion that due to the absence of certainty, their own theory might be just as good as a scientific one. They think it could still be true,1 which means that they feel justified in their denial. This of course violates several norms of good empirical reasoning, which I have explored at greater length in my book The Scientific Attitude. The scientific attitude, I argue, is the founding ethos of science, whereby scientists as a community …

The improbable U.S. plan to revitalize a Palestinian security force

The improbable U.S. plan to revitalize a Palestinian security force

The Palestinian Authority security forces, which report to President Mahmoud Abbas, are at a pivotal moment. The group, estimated to be 35,500 members strong, is regarded by the Biden administration as central to its goal to stabilize a post-war Gaza. However, despite two decades of reforms, the Palestinian Authority remains chronically underfunded and widely unpopular; many think its security force is ill-equipped to take on the massive responsibility that its Western backers are envisioning. Today, Post reporter Miriam Berger takes us inside the Palestinian Authority training center, and gives us a rare glimpse of the specific challenges this security force faces as the United States rests its hopes on the group. Today’s show was produced by Rennie Svirnovskiy, with help from Ariel Plotnick. It was mixed by Sean Carter and edited by Monica Campbell.  Subscribe to The Washington Post here. Source link

The improbable U.S. plan for a revitalized Palestinian security force

The improbable U.S. plan for a revitalized Palestinian security force

JERICHO, West Bank — At a U.S.-funded training center tucked between Jericho’s desert slopes, the next generation of Palestinian Authority security forces gripped their guns and readied for a mission. The objective: arrest two “violators of the law” who had taken refuge in a restaurant. The location: a collection of metal trailers meant to mimic a Palestinian neighborhood. The gear: face masks, plastic weapons and paintball guns. The recruits spread out methodically, moving in and apprehending the assailants without a shot being fired. The training director, a colonel, looked on proudly. He spoke on the condition that he be identified by his rank to discuss sensitive issues. “You see, we are very professional here,” he told The Washington Post last month at the Palestinian Authority’s Central Training Institute. “We are really trying.” Post reporters were granted rare access to the training center, affording a look at the challenges faced by the Palestinian security forces — regarded by Washington as central to its plans for a strengthened Palestinian Authority that can help stabilize postwar Gaza. Despite …

Mike Johnson’s Improbable Rise to Speaker of the House

Mike Johnson’s Improbable Rise to Speaker of the House

When Representative Mike Johnson arrived in Congress in 2017, he received an important piece of advice from a fellow Louisianan, Representative Steve Scalise. “Be careful about your early alliances that you make,” Scalise told Johnson, as the younger Republican recalled in a C-SPAN interview that year. Avoid getting “marginalized or labeled in any way.” Six years later, Johnson has followed that advice all the way to the House speakership, reaching a post that is second in line to the presidency faster than any other lawmaker in modern congressional history. Staunchly conservative and closely aligned with former President Donald Trump, the 51-year-old former talk-radio host made few headlines and fewer enemies as he climbed the ranks of his party. With a 220–209 House vote this afternoon, Johnson was able to forge a consensus that eluded three previous aspirants—including his own mentor, Scalise—to replace Kevin McCarthy. He earned unanimous support from Republican members, who stood and applauded when he clinched a majority of the chamber. His victory ends a weeks-long power struggle that immobilized the House as …

Rishi Sunak packages U-turns as challenges to consensus politics – an improbable effort to rebrand as the candidate for change

Rishi Sunak packages U-turns as challenges to consensus politics – an improbable effort to rebrand as the candidate for change

The party conference speech is traditionally an important moment for political leaders. It enables them to set the agenda, rally the core membership and supporters around key themes, and speak to the wider audience of electors. The Conservative party has now had five different party leaders giving conference speeches as prime minister at this time of year since 2015. This is the third party leader to give a speech in the past three years. Rishi Sunak’s first party leader speech may indeed be his only one if the election is called before October 2024 and he is removed from office and the leadership. Having lost the 2022 party leadership contest to Liz Truss, then, after her brief tenure, becoming party leader and prime minister without any further general or party leader election, Sunak has no electoral mandate to draw on. With a general election within a year, the party conference speech offers the opportunity to set out a narrative and present personal credentials to party and the electorate. Takeover prime ministers do, however, struggle to …