All posts tagged: GDP

Thursday Humor: What Is The Optimal Temperature For Global GDP Growth?

Thursday Humor: What Is The Optimal Temperature For Global GDP Growth?

Published by skeptic

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, A group of climate alarmists have concluded that global GDP will be 23 percent lower on the current path. I was aware of the ridiculous article when it came out. I stopped reading when I noted that all countries were all given equal weighting. For example, Nigeria has the same weight as the US. The authors tried to mitigate this in various ways but it was obvious that the authors would bend the data and the report to match their goals. Today, I am pleased to present a complete and thorough trashing of the Nature article. Please consider Global Non-Linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production: Comment on Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel by David Barker, emphasis mine. The journal Nature published an influential article in 2015 by Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, and Edward Miguel (hereafter BHM) purporting to show that higher temperatures will lower economic growth in warm countries. The Web of Science reports that the paper is in the top six one hundredths of one percent of economics and business publications by …

Someone Is Lying: Atlanta Fed Claims US GDP Is 4.2% While DOE Reports Lowest Gasoline, Diesel Demand Since Covid

Someone Is Lying: Atlanta Fed Claims US GDP Is 4.2% While DOE Reports Lowest Gasoline, Diesel Demand Since Covid

Published by skeptic

On one hand, the Atlanta Fed triumphantly blasted earlier today that Bidenomics is the greatest thing since sliced bread, helping push its Q2 GDP Nowcast to a whopping 4.2%, up from its latest estimate of 3.3%. On the other hand, Biden’s own DOE – in its latest attempt to slam oil, gas and diesel prices because nothing will crush Biden’s re-election chances faster than an oil price spike in the summer – reported that demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States has plunged to its lowest seasonally since the onset of the COVID pandemic, “sparking concern that economic activity is now becoming stagnant as refining margins hit news lows not seen in months“, Reuters reported. As shown in the chart below, monthly averages for the week ended May 3 show gasoline demand at 8.63 million barrels per day–a figure not seen since May 2020, at the start of the pandemic, based on EIA data. Data also showed demand for distillates – the most accurate proxy for overall economic activity – plunged to 3.6 …

Ratings agencies keep assessment of France’s debt unchanged

Ratings agencies keep assessment of France’s debt unchanged

Published by Sam

Paris (AFP) – Two major ratings agencies left their assessment of France’s huge debt pile unchanged Friday, but cast doubt on the government’s debt reduction target. Issued on: 27/04/2024 – 00:05Modified: 27/04/2024 – 00:04 1 min Moody’s maintained France’s sovereign rating at “Aa2” with a stable outlook. Fitch, which downgraded its rating for France last year, left it unchanged at “AA-” with a stable outlook. France’s public deficit widened to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2023, overshooting the government’s 4.9 percent target. And with the debt stock equal to 110.6 percent of GDP, France has the third highest debt ratio in the European Union after Greece and Italy. Read moreFrance avoids S&P credit downgrade despite concerns over national debt The government has set a target of bringing debt below 3.0 percent of GDP by 2027. But both agencies cast doubts. Moody’s said it was “unlikely” that France will hit its deficit target of 2.9 percent in 2027. “Progress in sustainably reducing the budget deficit and government debt is limited,” it said in a commentary. The …

Stagflation Shock: GDP Stuns With Lowest Print In 2 Years, Below Lowest Estimates, As PCE Comes In Red Hot

Stagflation Shock: GDP Stuns With Lowest Print In 2 Years, Below Lowest Estimates, As PCE Comes In Red Hot

Published by skeptic

If the Biden admin was to have any hopes of the Fed cutting rates and monetary easing ahead of the election, the tires would need to start falling off the US economy right… about… now… Which is why we didn’t find it at all surprising that moments ago the Biden Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in Q1, US GDP unexpectedly collapsed to just 1.6%, down more than 50% from the Q4 print of 3.4%, the lowest print since Q2 2022 when the US underwent a brief technical recession (one which the NBER never admitted of course), and a huge miss to the 2.5% estimate. Almost as if on purpose, the GDP printed below the lowest estimate (that of SMBC Nikko) which was at 1.7% (the highest forecast was 3.1% from Goldman Sachs which was off by the usual 50%), and was a 3-sigma miss to the median estimate of 2.5%. But while a collapse in the US economy is just what the “soft landers” wanted, the huge GDP miss was just half the story …

‘Stagflationary’ GDP Data Sparks Market Turmoil, Rate-Cut Hopes Crushed

‘Stagflationary’ GDP Data Sparks Market Turmoil, Rate-Cut Hopes Crushed

Published by skeptic

Weaker than expected growth and hotter than expected prices… the perfect example of a central banker’s nemesis: Stagflation… …and the market is very unhappy about it. Olu Sonola, head of US economic research for Fitch Ratings: “The hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.” Rate-cut expectations have dropped back near cycle lows (for 2024 and 2025)… Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields are soaring, led by the short-end… Source: Bloomberg With 2Y back above 5.00% (will it hold)… Source: Bloomberg Stocks are getting spanked… Commodities are less anxious with oil sliding a little, gold rallying modestly even with the dollar rising… Source: Bloomberg Crypto is heading lower… Source: Bloomberg What time is the Biden press conference to confirm there will be rate-cuts this year? Loading… Source link

Rishi Sunak Announces Increase In Defence Spending To 2.5% Of GDP

Rishi Sunak Announces Increase In Defence Spending To 2.5% Of GDP

Published by skeptic

Rishi Sunak delivered a press conference in Warsaw alongside the chief of NATO (Alamy) 5 min read1 hr Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced an increase in defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, which he called the “biggest strengthening of our national defense for a generation”. The Government currently spends just over 2 per cent on defence, previously saying it would only increase spending to 2.5 per cent when fiscal and economic circumstances allow. The increase to 2.5 per cent would make the UK the fifth-highest spender as a proportion of GDP in NATO. Sunak travelled to Poland on Tuesday alongside Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps to announce the UK will provide an additional £500m to Kyiv, as well as increasing overall defence spending. He said the increase in defence spending would start today and rise steadily each year over the next six years to 2030. “We’ll invest an additional £75bn in our defence and it will be fully funded with no increase in borrowing or debt,” he said. “So this is …

UK to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, Sunak says | Defence policy

UK to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, Sunak says | Defence policy

Published by skeptic

Britain will boost its defence spending to 2.5% of national output by the end of the decade as Rishi Sunak pledged to put the UK’s arms industry on a “war footing” in response to global threats. The prime minister’s plan, which he said would help the UK deal with an “increasingly dangerous” world, would steadily increase defence spending to £87bn a year by 2030. It comes after months of pressure from Tory MPs, including the defence secretary, Grant Shapps, to increase military spending to help counter increasing dangers. Sunak also committed to giving at least £3bn a year to Ukraine “for as long as required”, a key request from President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to provide more certainty in the face of Russian aggression. However, in a sign the Tories will try to hold Labour’s feet to the fire over defence in the run-up to the general election, Sunak told reporters after his speech in Poland there would be a “choice on this topic” for voters. Labour has not said it would match Sunak’s commitment, although the …

China posts forecast-beating 5.3% growth in first quarter

China posts forecast-beating 5.3% growth in first quarter

Published by Sam

BEIJING: China’s economy grew far more than expected in the first quarter of 2024, data showed Tuesday (Apr 16), even as it continues to be buffeted by a property-sector crisis and flagging consumer activity. For January-March, gross domestic product (GDP) reached 29.6 trillion yuan (US$4 trillion) – an increase of 5.3 per cent, compared with 5.2 per cent in the previous quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said. “The national economy continued the good momentum of a rebound,” the NBS said, calling it a “good start”. Beijing last month set a target of around five per cent growth for the year, a goal it admitted would “not be easy” and which analysts said was ambitious given the headwinds the country is confronting. While such a rate would be the envy of most major economies, it would nonetheless be one of China’s lowest since 1990, excluding the pandemic years. The GDP data remains a key insight into the health of the world’s second-largest economy, despite being eminently political. Ratings agency Fitch last month downgraded the country’s …

Vietnam reports Q1 GDP growth of 5.66%

Vietnam reports Q1 GDP growth of 5.66%

Published by skeptic

HANOI : Vietnam’s gross domestic product grew 5.66 per cent from a year earlier, led by manufacturing and services, government data released on Friday showed. Growth in the January-March quarter for the manufacturing and exports-led economy was faster than the expansion of 3.41 per cent in the same period last year, but slower than the 6.72 per cent growth in the fourth quarter. The manufacturing and construction sector grew 6.28 per cent, while the services sector expanded 6.12 per cent from a year earlier, the General Statistics Office (GSO) said in a report. Goods exports in the quarter grew 17 per cent from a year earlier, while industrial production rose 21.7 per cent, the GSO said. Consumer prices in March rose 3.97 per cent from a year earlier, it said, adding that retail sales in the January-March period rose 8.2 per cent. Source link