All posts tagged: Bullion

‘Squeezey’ Stock Market Extends Gains; Bonds & Bullion Bid

‘Squeezey’ Stock Market Extends Gains; Bonds & Bullion Bid

Published by skeptic

More of the same today after last week’s tepid payrolls and dovish Powell with gold, stocks, and bonds bid as rate-cut hopes inched higher. The market is now pricing in two rate-cuts in 2024 and three more cuts in 2025… Source: Bloomberg For now the market appears to prefer the ‘bad news’ from declining growth expectations to the ‘bad news’ from soaring inflation prints… Source: Bloomberg But, hey, for now, as Goldman’s trading desk noted, the market feels “squeezey” and 12% gains for the basket of ‘most shorted’ stocks in the last three days would support that thesis (and overall activity was lower than average)… Source: Bloomberg That helps explain why Small Caps (dominated by the heavily shorted names) outperformed but Mag7 stocks also continued higher today with all the majors green on the day (Dow lagged)… All the majors rallied back above their 50DMAs (but The Dow fell back to test its key technical level)… A mixed picture in bonds today with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1.5bps, 30Y -2bps), but the whole complex sold …

‘Powell Put’ Sparks Surge In Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar; Bullion & Black Gold Flat On Week

‘Powell Put’ Sparks Surge In Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar; Bullion & Black Gold Flat On Week

Published by skeptic

Positive macro, central bank love-fest, and AI catalysts… buy all the things… US Macro ‘outperformed’ expectations this week amid more pro-cyclical data points… Source: Bloomberg …which combined with a dovish tilt by Powell (which lifted 20-24 rate-cut expectation)… Source: Bloomberg …and positive AI catalysts… Source: Bloomberg Put this all together – rates, growth, and secular momentum –and it is perhaps not surprising that stocks have reached another all-time high in the US. Led to a solid week for all the majors with Nasdaq outperforming… The S&P 500 trades at a 2025 P/E of 20+. So the question may simply be: can the rates/growth/secular innovation dynamic be sustained long enough to allow corporate earnings to grow into the current market’s valuation? Shorts were aggressively squeezed Wednesday an Thursday… Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields ended the week lower, including the long-end (-4bps), but the short-end outperformed (-13bps)… Source: Bloomberg Which left the curve (2s30s) stepper on the week…. Source: Bloomberg The dollar roared back to six week highs this week… Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin ETFs saw large net outflows …

Stocks & The Dollar Gain On ‘Good’ News; Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold Sink

Stocks & The Dollar Gain On ‘Good’ News; Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold Sink

Published by skeptic

Philly Fed beat, jobless claims beat, PMIs beat… but with soaring prices, Leading Indicators beat, and existing home sales beat… all good news… Source: Bloomberg That good news reduced expectations for rate-cuts in 2024… Source: Bloomberg Stocks extended yesterday’s gains on the good news… but Nasdaq was hit during the day on the heels of the AAPL news… AAPL was clubbed like a baby seal on the regulatory crackdown… Treasuries were mixed with the short-end lagging after yesterday’s outperformance, (2Y +4bps, 30Y -1bps) with only the long-end still higher in yield on the week… Source: Bloomberg The dollar rebounded, retracing almost all of yesterday’s losses… Source: Bloomberg Another net outflow (3rd in a row) from BTC ETFs yesterday… Source: Bloomberg …and the crypto-currency was sold today… Source: Bloomberg Oil prices dipped for a second day – despite bond yields higher and growth being positive… Source: Bloomberg Gold retraced much of yesterday’s spike gains… Source: Bloomberg Finally, which comes first: Nasdaq 17,000 or 10Y 4.0%… Source: Bloomberg …before or after the election? Loading… Source link

Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold ‘Hot’; Bonds, Banks, & Big-Tech ‘Not’

Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold ‘Hot’; Bonds, Banks, & Big-Tech ‘Not’

Published by skeptic

Higher rates didn’t matter to long-duration (tech) stocks yesterday, but apparently, absent macro data today, it does (bond prices and stock prices fell together)… Source: Bloomberg Mid-week, mid-month, and mid-way between earnings meant a pause in the euphoria today with Small Caps leading and Nasdaq lagging…until about 30 minutes before the close when a massive sell-program hit (ahead of tomorrow’s PPI and Retail Sales?). The Dow and Small Caps managed to bounce back to modest gains while Nasdaq and S&P ended red… The sell program that suddenly hit at around 1525ET was the largest in over three weeks… Source: Bloomberg While the S&P 500 was down today, it has now been 266 days without a 2% daily drop… Source: Bloomberg Nasdaq reversed yesterday’s relative outperformance to Small Caps… Source: Bloomberg A peak under the hood of the market today does reveal a more dynamic picture… Pro-cyclical sectors like Energy and Materials are outperforming today, while Tech is the worst performing subsector. Source: Bloomberg Notably, 5 of the Magnificent 7 are underperforming today and while they …

Bitcoin, Bullion, & Breakevens Soar As Markets Lose Faith In ‘Inflation-Fighting’ Fed

Bitcoin, Bullion, & Breakevens Soar As Markets Lose Faith In ‘Inflation-Fighting’ Fed

Published by skeptic

Unpossible… For months, the talking heads have espoused soft-landings and disinflationary trends and rate-cut-paloozas (but hell no recession at all). But, after the last set of inflation data hit – showing stickier than expected price rises (especially the acyclical segment)… …it appears the market ain’t buying what The Fed is selling anymore… First things first, Breakevens are soaring (the market’s bet on where inflation will be)… Gold is breaking out, near record highs… And of course, bitcoin is soaring, also back near record highs… So is inflation under control or not? Who do you believe, The Fed or your lying eyes? Gold record highBitcoin record high (any second)Breakevens soaring And the Fed hasn’t even started cutting rates yet pic.twitter.com/mK4hb1GQS7 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2024 We also note that the ‘juice’ from last year’s massive loosening of financial conditions is starting to wear off (not great timing for an incumbent in an election year)… And as a reminder, The Fed is entirely apolitical and would never cut-rates in an election year to juice sentiment in …

Best Week For Bullion In 2024 As Mega-Caps Melt-Up On Bad Breadth

Best Week For Bullion In 2024 As Mega-Caps Melt-Up On Bad Breadth

Published by skeptic

Ok, so everyone knows, NVDA is awesome, topping $2 trillion in market cap intraday this week (after a $2BN hike above consensus)… Source: Bloomberg …but today saw a smidge of profit-taking… MAG7 stocks were obviously up on the week (the sixth in the last seven), but today’s weakness took the basket back below its prior record high… Source: Bloomberg There’s no way, right? Source: Bloomberg Small Caps ended the week down around 1% while the rest of the majors surged 1.5-2% on this holiday-shortened week… And the best-performing sector of the week was… drum roll please… NOT tech. Consumer Staples were best, energy worst (but green), and Technology middle of the pack… Source: Bloomberg Bonds were bid to end the week with the long-end outperforming overall and the curve flattening around the 5Y… Source: Bloomberg The yield curve (2s30s) flattened bigly on the week to its most inverted since 2023… Source: Bloomberg Rate-cut expectations for 2024 continued to slide, now at just a 30% chance of 4 cuts (70% of 3)… Source: Bloomberg …and June …

Bonds, Bullion, & Big-Tech Fear Bid, Stocks Skid Ahead Of NVDA’s Big Day

Bonds, Bullion, & Big-Tech Fear Bid, Stocks Skid Ahead Of NVDA’s Big Day

Published by skeptic

After yesterday’s holiday – to celebrate dead (or nearly dead) presidents? – US markets stumbled to start the week (ahead of NVDA’s big earnings announcement tomorrow after the close). NVDA vols are a little ‘bid’ let’s say (with an implied move of +/-11% or a $200BN range of outcomes)… Source: Bloomberg That helped drag Nasdaq’s ‘VIX’ up to its highest since early November (but note that S&P ‘VIX’ remains below last week’s highs and Small Caps ‘VIX’ is at its highest since May 2023)…. Source: Bloomberg Oddly, the media were not quite as fast to squawk about the fact that NVDA’s market cap fell back below that of AMZN and GOOGL’s… Source: Bloomberg What little macro data there was today disappointed (Philly Fed Services deeper into contraction, and LEI’s declining worse than expected for the longest streak since ‘Lehman’)… Source: Bloomberg That lifted expectations for 2024 rate-cuts very modestly… Source: Bloomberg Small Caps were the ugliest horse in today’s glue factory and the Dow the prettiest – though they all closed red. With about 30 …

Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin All Rip As Catalyst-Heavy Week Begins

Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin All Rip As Catalyst-Heavy Week Begins

Published by skeptic

Quiet macro day today a collapse in Texas Manufacturing the only significant domestic data (but Treasury’s QRA, part 1 the most noteworthy ahead of tomorrow’s actual announcement), and that was evident in rate-cut expectations being hugely unchanged… Source: Bloomberg And the lack of news was enough to allow a ‘buy all the things’ narrative to continue with Treasury’s QRA suggested lower supply expectations. Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly outperforming (short-end least bought)… Source: Bloomberg Gold rallied back to the highs after the QRA… Source: Bloomberg …as the dollar declined… Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin ripped higher, topping $43,000 back at two-week highs… Source: Bloomberg As GBTC outflows are trending lower and Friday saw net inflows… Source: Bloomberg And of course, stocks drifted higher all day – as they do – but then jumped notably higher on the AQR supply report… Source: Bloomberg With MAG7 stocks accelerating after the AQR up to new record highs… Source: Bloomberg And ‘most shorted’ stocks were squeezed hard (up to last week’s highs)… Source: Bloomberg Of course, with …