All posts tagged: 039Dots039

Fed Remains On Hold, But 'Dots' Reveal Hawkish Bias

Fed Remains On Hold, But 'Dots' Reveal Hawkish Bias

Fed Remains On Hold, But ‘Dots’ Reveal Hawkish Bias Tl;dr: No change for rates, barely any change in the statement, upgraded economic growth, but big ‘signals’ from the Dot-Plot with 2024 remaining the same (3 rate-cuts) but 2025, 2026, and beyond all seeing higher rates (less cuts). 2024 Median dot: unchanged at 3 cuts, but composition changed… 2 officials saw no cuts (unch) 2 officials sew one cut (one more than in Dec) 5 officials saw two cuts (unchanged) 9 officials saw three cuts (up from 6 in Dec) 1 saw four cuts (down from five who saw 4 or more cuts in Dec) …literally one voter stood between 50bps and 75bps in cuts in 2024… …and the so-called neutral rate is higher… …and implicit admission that the inflation target will eventually be lifted. *  *  * Since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 31st), bitcoin has been the big winner (and bonds the biggest loser). Gold and stocks have outperformed even with the dollar rising modestly… Source: Bloomberg Even more notably, stocks have rallied since …