A “special election operation” is taking place in Russia from March 15 to 17. Incumbent president, Vladimir Putin, is indeed the leading candidate for his succession. In a system with no political alternative, he will certainly achieve a winning score, surpassing his 2018 result (77% of the vote). Thanks to the constitutional reform conducted in 2020, it will be possible for him to run for two more presidential terms, until 2036.

Two years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin is very confident. The Russian army can boast of the capture of the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka; the economy is growing by 3.6% despite Western sanctions; none of the elite has deserted; the opposition has been decapitated; and society remains insensitive to the high loss of life at the front.

The scenario for this “election” is, however, the most tightly controlled electoral process Russia has experienced since Putin came to power. Manipulation techniques are well-honed, and new ones have been added to the arsenal, such as electronic voting in around a third of Russia’s regions. As usual, the outgoing president did not deign to take part in debates with the three other puppet candidates. Little known to the Russian public, they come from parliamentary parties aligned with Kremlin policy. As a sign of loyalty, they will not be campaigning in the “new territories,” the annexed Ukrainian regions where images show elderly people standing next to hooded, armed men accompanying mobile ballot boxes for early voting. The European Union has already made it clear that voting in these territories – not all of which are controlled by Moscow – will not be recognized.

Flaws and setbacks

The election masquerade is struggling to excite Russian interest because of the absence of any intrigue. The recent report by the officially disbanded election monitoring NGO Golos describes a particularly lackluster campaign. Nevertheless, the Kremlin is sticking with it. Unlike in Ukraine, where – as a consequence of martial law – the presidential election was postponed indefinitely, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made it clear several months before the election that it would indeed take place on the scheduled date and in compliance with all formal procedures laid down by Russian law.

We shouldn’t be surprised. A “personalist” authoritarian political regime needs regular reconfirmation of its leader’s legitimacy and popularity. The all-powerful Putin is seeking acclaim from the population and his elites. This is all the more true given that his regime has displayed several flaws since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, both in terms of poor quality of the information provided by the various special services to the president – convinced that he could take Kyiv [the Ukrainian name for the city known as Kiev in Russian] in three days – and in terms of setbacks suffered by the Russian army.

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