According to the Ukrainians, this is the largest Russian attack on the country’s energy infrastructure since the war began over two years ago. On Friday, March 22, some 150 missiles and drones targeted facilities in eight Ukrainian regions, causing major power, gas and water cuts, notably in the cities of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Soumy, Odesa and Kryvyi Rih. Five people were reportedly killed in the bombardments, according to local authorities.

“More than 60 Shahed [a kamikaze drone of Iranian origin] and nearly 90 missiles of various types” were fired at hydroelectric and thermal power plants, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a message posted on social media on Friday. The Ukrainians claim to have shot down 55 of the 63 drones sent against their facilities, but around 50 ballistic and cruise missiles, including hypersonic Kinzhals, are believed to have slipped through their air defenses. Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric power station, on the Dnipro river, was hit by eight missiles, causing “very significant damage.”

In a message posted on Telegram on Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have carried out the attack “in response” to Ukrainian operations in Russian regions close to the border, notably around Belgorod and Kursk. Since March 12, pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters from various units attached to the Kyiv army have been raiding localities behind the border and planting the Ukrainian flag on official buildings. During his re-election campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself promised that he would take revenge for the growing number of such attacks on national territory.

However, these incursions into Russian territory have no direct military effect. “They are at most knife stabs,” said a French officer. But they are part of the “thousand cuts” strategy implemented by Kyiv’s military leadership since the beginning of the year. With their counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 having failed, and their troops shifting to a defensive posture on almost the entire front, the Ukrainians have chosen to multiply actions on the periphery of the battlefield in an attempt to hinder the Russian war effort. “We’re witnessing an indirect Ukrainian strategy aimed at wearing down and disrupting the capabilities allowing Russia to sustain over time,” said a French military source.

‘It’s more symbolic than tactical’

While the attacks and bombardments on the border areas of northeastern Ukraine obviously do not herald an invasion attempt by Russia, they do disrupt the logistical supply to the front and, above all, could force Moscow to redeploy troops to defend its territory. In particular, moving Russian units away from the Donbas would relieve the Ukrainian defensive system, which is currently close to breaking point in several places. “These incursions into Russian territory are also intended to maintain the morale of the troops and the population, similar to when the French sent the Jules Verne to bomb Berlin in June 1940. It’s the symbolic rather than the tactical effect that’s being sought,” explained Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant.

You have 57.92% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.